CMC News

Prediction Markets Could Hit $10B Revenue by 2030, Says Citizens

#Prediction markets are generating annualized revenue above $3 billion, up from approximately $2 billion in December 2025, and could reach $10 billion annually by 2030, according to a report published Monday by U.S. bank Citizens. The bank attributed the trajectory to rising trading volumes, improving market #infrastructure, and the early involvement of institutional participants.

Citizens analysts, led by Devin Ryan, wrote that $10 billion in annual industry revenue by 2030 represents "a reasonable medium-term waypoint rather than an end state," comparing the sector's current growth curve to the early stages of listed derivatives and digital assets markets.

January volumes across prediction market platforms rose more than 40% from December, with February tracking at a comparable pace despite expectations of a seasonal slowdown following the end of the football calendar. Activity is expanding beyond sports into macroeconomic, political, and regulatory events, areas that align more directly with institutional risk-management needs.

Leading platforms in the space include #Kalshi, a #CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange for event contracts, and #Polymarket, a decentralized market covering politics, sports, and economics. Both have drawn growing attention from mainstream finance and from regulators as the sector gains scale.

Citizens said the appeal for sophisticated traders lies in the ability to hedge discrete event risk, from inflation data surprises to merger approvals, without relying on proxy instruments like index futures or options that carry basis risk. Prediction markets isolate specific binary or probabilistic outcomes, providing more targeted exposure and real-time, capital-weighted probability signals.