WISSEY

As of Feb 16, 2026, $BTC is currently on track for its worst first-quarter performance in 8 years. The #crypto has declined approximately 22.3% year-to-date, falling from a January opening of roughly $87,700 to around $68,000

Q1 2026 Performance Breakdown:

The current decline is the sharpest first-quarter drawdown since the 2018 bear market, when prices collapsed nearly 50% in three months.

🔹January: Ended with a 10.2% loss

🔹February (to date): Down 13.4% so far, putting Bitcoin on track for its first-ever consecutive red January and February on record

Quarterly Trend: If losses persist through March, this will mark the weakest Q1 since 2018, surpassing recent negative first quarters in 2025 (-11.8%) and 2020 (-10.8%)

Market Sentiment & Technicals:

🔹Deleveraging: Analysts describe the recent move as an "orderly deleveraging," with futures open interest dropping by over 20% to shed speculative heat.

🔹Key Support: The $60,000–$65,000 zone is considered critical support; a break below this level could trigger large-scale liquidations toward $55,000 or lower.

🔹Fear Index: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflects "Extreme Fear" with a score of 8, indicating deeply bearish sentiment

Are Back-to-Back Red Months Next?

Historical data shows that Bitcoin has only recorded back-to-back negative first quarters during deep bear markets (2018 and 2022).

While February is currently red, some analysts suggest a potential recovery in March based on historical patterns of resilience and institutional accumulation. However, others warn that if the "four-year cycle" has peaked, 2026 could see a prolonged drawdown or crypto winter

#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#