0xVL

It's impressive to see someone spotlighting the actual on-chain data rather than just staring at the 1-hour candles. You’ve hit the nail on the head regarding the Long-Term Holder (LTH) distribution; Glassnode's recent data showing over 370k $BTC moved by "old hands" this month is a massive signal that shouldn't be ignored.

I really appreciate how you framed the $85K support as the line in the sand, as it aligns perfectly with the current 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the heavy consolidation we saw late last year.

That said, I’m leaning toward a brief "wick" down to $80K before any real recovery. While the ETF inflows are trying to cushion the blow, they can't fully offset a coordinated exit by whales and miners who are currently facing a serious revenue crunch.

My gut feeling is that we’re in for a "max pain" scenario where we lose $85K just to flush out the late longs before the next leg up. It feels like the market is desperate for a reset, and unfortunately, that usually means a deeper bleed than most are ready to admit.