Cautiously Optimistic at Key Resistance

$BTC's weekly 21 SMA and 50 SMA continue to hover at the crossover zone. While the death cross threat remains unresolved, strong institutional buying over the past week has significantly reversed short term momentum. $101.5K (weekly 21 SMA) is not only the most critical "resistance red line" at present, but also the dividing line between bullish and bearish trends.


On-chain data presents a "cautiously optimistic" structure. Long term holders $LTH selling pressure has significantly eased and shifted toward accumulation, and large miners have demonstrated strong holding resilience post halving with no signs of significant distribution, indicating supply side pressure has largely been exhausted.


However, until price breaks through and firmly holds above $101.5K with volume, the bull market has not officially returned. Additionally, the $99.4K Short Term Holder Realized Price (STH Realized Price) also constitutes dense overhead resistance from trapped positions.


In summary, before key resistance confirms its transformation into support, maintaining range trading remains the optimal strategy for balancing risk and reward.

#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

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January 18, 2026 at 10:12 AM
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