CMC News

Bitcoin Reflects Recession Fear Despite Improving Economy, Says Bitwise

#Bitwise Europe research head André Dragosch says $BTC currently reflects the most pessimistic global growth expectations since the 2022 Federal Reserve tightening cycle and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. The assessment suggests a significant disconnect between price action and actual economic conditions.

Dragosch posted an analysis on Friday showing $BTC's implied growth outlook has dropped below negative one standard deviation. This stands in sharp contrast to survey-based macro indicators from Sentix, ISM, and the Philly Fed, which remain around neutral territory.

The researcher described the current setup as asymmetric risk-reward, comparable to dislocations seen in March 2020 and November 2022. Both periods preceded substantial $BTC rallies as prices rebounded from oversold conditions.

" #Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment," Dragosch wrote in the X post. He argued the asset has already absorbed considerable negative news, while forward-looking economic data points toward recovery rather than contraction.

$BTC traded at $90,559 as of 11:30 a.m. UTC on Nov. 29, down 0.8% over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency sits 28% below its $126,080 record high reached Oct. 6 and remains down 3% year-to-date.

The CMC #Crypto Fear & Greed Index held at 20 on Saturday, marking Fear territory. This represents improvement from the year-to-date low of 10 recorded on Nov. 22, though sentiment remains well below the 84 reading seen in late November 2024.

Dragosch pointed to preceding monetary stimulus as a catalyst for growth acceleration extending into 2026. He compared the current environment to post-COVID conditions, when similar dynamics drove a sixfold rally in $BTC prices.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders assign 86.4% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut at December's #FederalReserve policy #meeting.