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Crypto Rally Expected Into Year-End, Says Tom Lee

Tom Lee projects the S&P 500 could climb an additional 4%–10% by year-end 2025, potentially pushing the index above 7,000, while anticipating a parallel rally in #crypto markets. The Bitmine Immersion Technologies chairman shared his outlook during a Friday interview on CNBC's Closing Bell program.

Lee, who also serves as head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, maintained his bullish stance despite recent market volatility. Fundstrat's year-end S&P 500 target stood at 6,600 during the April lows, and with the index currently around 6,800, he sees room for continued gains in the remaining 10 weeks of the year.

The analyst tied his optimistic view to #FederalReserve rate cuts that began in September following an extended pause. He noted this pattern has only occurred twice in the past 50 years, in 1998 and 2024, with persistent investor skepticism potentially fueling late-year market advances in both instances.

On Oct. 10, crypto markets experienced what Lee called the biggest #liquidation event in five years, partially triggered by escalating U.S.-China tariff tensions. Despite this pressure, $BTC declined only 3%–4%, which Lee framed as evidence of resilience and store of value characteristics.

Both $BTC and $ETH are currently at record lows in open interest, measuring outstanding futures and options positions, while technical indicators are beginning to turn positive. Lee suggested that this cleaner derivatives backdrop often precedes upward price movement, with traditional finance developments, like #JPMorgan's openness to using crypto as collateral, providing additional support.

Lee argued that crypto often signals direction for stocks and broader #liquidity conditions. He linked Bitcoin's behavior to the S&P 500 performance and connected $ETH to small-cap movements via the Russell 2000 Index.