$BTC Halving Cycle Dead as Institutions Take Over, K33 Research Claims


K33 Research argues that institutional adoption and policy shifts have ended $BTC's classic four-year halving cycle. The firm's October outlook suggests structural forces, not retail mania, now dictate trajectory as the asset enters a fundamentally new regime.


$BTC hit new all-time highs this week in both U.S. dollars and euros, marking its first euro-denominated record since January 2025. K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde wrote that the familiar halving cycle has been rendered obsolete by sovereign participation and macro policy alignment.


ETF and derivatives exposure surged by over 63,000 $BTC ($7.75 billion) in a single week, representing the strongest accumulation of 2025. Open interest on CME futures jumped by nearly 15,000 $BTC, while U.S. ETFs absorbed over 31,600 $BTC in seven days.


K33 positions this rally as the antithesis of prior euphoric peaks. In 2017, optimism over #CME's futures launch fueled a blow-off top, while in 2021, the dream of ETFs ended in SEC rejection. However, in 2025, those aspirations became reality as Bitcoin established itself as a material part of the global #institutional market.

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October 09, 2025 at 1:55 AM
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