$BTC Has 50% Chance of $140K This Month


Economist Timothy Peterson's simulations using decade-long data suggest $BTC has equal odds of surpassing $140,000 or finishing below $136,000 in October.


Peterson stated Wednesday on X that hundreds of simulations based purely on real data indicate a 50% probability that Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000. He added there's a 43% chance the #cryptocurrency ends below $136,000.


$BTC would need approximately 14.7% gains to reach $140,000 from its current price of $122,032. The cryptocurrency cooled after setting a new all-time high of $126,200 on Monday.


$BTC opened Oct. 1 at roughly $116,500, meaning a rise to $140,000 would represent a 20.17% gain for the month. This closely matches Bitcoin's historical October average performance of 20.75% gains since 2013.


Peterson explained the simulation uses $BTC's daily price data from 2015 to model market behavior over time. The forecast stems from "hundreds of simulations based purely on real data, not human emotion or biased opinion," he stated.


The economist noted that every projection follows identical logic using price changes matching Bitcoin's real historical volatility and rhythm. Peterson told reporters the simulation shows half of $BTC October gains may have already occurred.

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October 08, 2025 at 12:58 PM
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