$BTC Could Reach $165K Based on Gold Comparison, Says #JPMorgan


#JPMorgan analysts project $BTC could reach $165,000 by year-end based on its current undervaluation relative to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis. The Wall Street bank's analysis suggests $BTC would need to rise approximately 42% from current levels to match the scale of private gold holdings when accounting for risk capital consumption.


The $BTC-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0, meaning $BTC now consumes about 1.85 times more risk capital than gold. JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted $BTC's $2.3 trillion market cap needs to increase substantially to align with the roughly $6 trillion in private gold investment through ETFs, bars and coins.


The valuation gap has shifted dramatically over recent months. $BTC was approximately $36,000 overvalued at the end of 2024 but now sits about $46,000 undervalued relative to volatility-adjusted gold levels. The reversal reflects gold's recent price surge and $BTC's relative stability during the same period.


JPMorgan's projection comes amid growing adoption of the "#debasement trade" among retail investors. This investment strategy involves purchasing alternative stores of value like $BTC and gold to hedge against fiat currency devaluation. Retail investors have led the movement by pouring capital into Bitcoin and gold #ETFs since late 2024.

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October 02, 2025 at 7:38 PM
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