$BTC Could Hit $160K-$200K This Quarter, Says CryptoQuant


$BTC has entered Q4 2025 under conditions that appear favorable for a significant price rally, according to on-chain analytics firm #CryptoQuant. The firm projects the leading cryptocurrency could reach between $160,000 and $200,000 by year's end if current #demand trends continue.


Spot demand for $BTC has been climbing since July, with monthly increases exceeding 62,000 BTC. CryptoQuant noted that similar sustained demand patterns preceded previous fourth-quarter rallies in 2020, 2021, and 2024.


Whale holdings are expanding at an annual rate of 331,000 $BTC, compared with 255,000 in Q4 2024 and over 238,000 at the start of Q4 2020. U.S.-listed ETFs purchased 213,000 $BTC in Q4 2024, representing a 71% increase from the prior quarter, and could post similar growth this period according to Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research.


From a technical perspective, $BTC needed to break above the trader's on-chain realized price of $116,000 to shift back into the bull phase of its cycle. With $BTC now trading at around $117,300, the firm sees potential for the $160,000 to $200,000 range this quarter.


CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score Index stood at 40 to 50 in the final days of Q3, matching levels seen at the end of Q3 2024 before $BTC rallied from $70,000 to $100,000. These levels represent the threshold before conditions turn bullish, according to the index.


The index has recently been supported by growing Bitcoin demand, expanding #stablecoin liquidity, and lower unrealized trader gains. These factors point to reduced selling pressure across the market.


Other firms and executives forecasting $BTC at $200,000 by year-end include Standard Chartered Bank, Bitwise and Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Standard Chartered projects that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2028, driven by expanding #investor access and declining #volatility.

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October 02, 2025 at 3:12 AM
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