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#Bitcoin Bull Market Shows Fatal Signs as #Whales Cash Out 3.4M BTC

On-chain analysis reveals $BTC has entered a corrective phase following the Federal Open Market Committee-driven rally that peaked near $117,000. Long-term holders have realized 3.4 million $BTC in profits, while ETF inflows slowed significantly.

The current drawdown from the $124,000 all-time high to $109,700 represents just 12% compared to 28% cycle drawdowns or 60% declines in previous cycles. This aligns with diminishing volatility trends across macro cycles and resembles the steady 2015-2017 advance.

Realized cap, measuring cumulative capital investment, has risen to $1.06 trillion through three distinct waves since November 2022. This cycle absorbed $678 billion in net inflows, nearly 1.8 times larger than the prior cycle's $383 billion.

The profit realization ratio shows that in each wave, profit-taking exceeded 90% of coins moved, marking cyclical peaks. Having stepped away from the third such extreme, probabilities favor a #CoolingPhase ahead, according to historical patterns.

Long-term holder distribution reached 122,000 $BTC monthly, while #ETF net flows collapsed from 2,600 $BTC daily to nearly zero around the FOMC meeting. This combination created fragile market conditions setting up weakness.

#SpotVolumes spiked during post-FOMC selling as forced liquidations overwhelmed thin order books, accelerating the decline. Futures open interest fell from $44.8 billion to $42.7 billion as leveraged long positions were flushed out.

Options markets repriced aggressively with skew surging and puts in high demand, signaling defensive positioning. One-week implied volatility jumped from 1.5% to 17%, revealing aggressive demand for downside protection.

The market sits in peak gamma conditions where small price movements force aggressive dealer hedging. This structure amplifies sell-offs while capping rallies, skewing near-term volatility risk to the downside.