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#ArthurHayes Predicts #Crypto Surge When TGA Hits $850B

#BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects cryptocurrency markets to enter sustained bullish territory once the U.S. Treasury General Account reaches its $850 billion replenishment target. The #TGA currently holds $807 billion, with the milestone expected soon.

The TGA serves as the Treasury's main account with the #FederalReserve and plays a critical role in managing market liquidity. Hayes argues that reaching the target will reverse liquidity drains from Treasury debt sales, channeling funds back into markets.

Treasury bill and bond issuance throughout 2025 has absorbed liquidity from markets as funds accumulated in the account. This process effectively removes money from circulation, reducing available liquidity and potentially pressuring asset prices.

Once the $850 billion goal is achieved, previously absorbed liquidity could re-enter the private sector, including crypto markets. Hayes believes this influx will create supportive conditions for cryptocurrencies, which benefit from accommodating monetary policies.

The Federal Reserve's Sept. 17 rate cut of 25 basis points marked the first reduction since December 2024. $BTC saw a brief drop following the announcement in a typical "sell the news" response, but looser monetary policy generally favors riskier assets.

CME Group data shows 91.9% of market participants expect a 50-basis-point cut at October's FOMC meeting. This dovish expectation supports Hayes' view that lower rates make non-yielding assets like $BTC more attractive to investors.

Hayes cautioned that a mishandled TGA refill could temporarily push $BTC to $90,000-$95,000 if investors view liquidity boosts as short-lived rather than sustainable trends. The cryptocurrency's future depends on smooth transitions from draining to injecting liquidity.