I'm bullish on
$XMR with #DLGH and
1. Mining Centralization Risks (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Qubic, a mining pool led by IOTA co-founder #SergeyIvancheglo openly aims to control >33% of Monero’s hashrate. Its economic model incentivizes miners with QUBIC token rewards while selling mined XMR to fund token buybacks (Cointelegraph).
What to look out for: Qubic’s hashrate share (last reported at 38% on July 25) and Monero’s proposed protocol changes to deter pool dominance.
2. Orphan Block Anomalies (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Monero saw five orphan blocks on August 6–7, four linked to an “unknown” miner. Qubic’s developer CFB warned exchanges to expect more orphans through August (Coinspeaker).
What this means:
- Orphan rates above 1% (Monero’s typical baseline) suggest possible selfish mining or network instability.
- However, Monero Research Labs noted the spike remains within statistical noise for smaller chains.
Key metric: Monitor orphan rate via MoneroBlocks – sustained >2% would confirm systemic issues.
3. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact)
Overview: XMR broke below the $269 Fibonacci support, with RSI14 at 33.45 (neutral) but MACD histogram deepening negative divergence.
What this means:
- Bears control momentum: The 7-day SMA ($297.87) now acts as resistance.
- Next support lies at the 200-day EMA ($276.35), but high-volume selling suggests further downside.
Level to watch: A close below $258 (June 2025 low) could trigger algorithmic sell orders.
Conclusion
Monero’s drop stems from overlapping network risks and technical deterioration, with Qubic’s mining strategy amplifying uncertainty.
Can Monero’s P2Pool decentralized mining share rise above 15% this week to counter Qubic’s influence?
