Greed

Bitcoin

Rekt

Bitcoin’s (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) price rose above the $65,000 mark on May 6 as analysts argued that the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving">post-halving</a>&nbsp;“danger zone” may be over, with more BTC upside on the way.
<h2 id="bitcoin-out-of-the-post-halving-danger-zone-analyst">Bitcoin out of the post-halving “danger zone” — analyst</h2>
Bitcoin’s post-halving <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-entering-pre-halving-danger-zone-binance-crypto-ceos-bullish">danger zone</a>&nbsp;is a three-week window after the halving, historically associated with downside volatility occurring below the reaccumulation range.
With Bitcoin rising above the current reaccumulation range of approximately $60,000, the post-halving danger zone may be over, according to popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital. He <a href="https://newsletter.rektcapital.co/the-bitcoin-post-halving-danger-zone-is-over/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">wrote</a> in a May 6 post:
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “Time-wise the post-Halving ‘Danger Zone’ will continue for the remainder of this week, to see out its third final week in this post-Halving window. However, price-wise the anticipated effect has already occurred.”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-05/2a2bc211-2ae8-4758-8166-7a82d3e044e1.jpeg" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD chart. Source: Rekt Capital
 </figcaption>
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During the 2016 bull cycle, Bitcoin produced an 11% downside wick 21 days after the halving, which marked the beginning of the price reversal, <a href="https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1787405529133838695" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">noted</a> Rekt Capital in a May 6 X post:
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “History did repeat because in this cycle Bitcoin produced a -6% downside wick below its respective Range Low in the 15 days after the Halving. Bitcoin has since rebounded strongly to the upside… The Bitcoin Post-Halving ‘Danger Zone’ is over.”
</blockquote>
Meanwhile, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo also expects higher BTC prices based on the volume-weighted average price (VWAP), a popular oscillator used by traders to determine the average asset price based on price action and volume. 
Woo <a href="https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1787399664486227991" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">wrote</a> in a May 6 X post:
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “Seems like a good setup for BTC to reach escape velocity. Bull divergence with lots of room to run.”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-05/be62085b-810b-4e8c-bab8-aece3a2e70f1.jpeg" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin VWAP Oscillator. Source: Willy Woo
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Further showcasing a change in investor sentiment, the Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index rose to 71/100, signaling “greed” — up from 43/100, or “fear,” on May 2.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-05/a7642480-5908-42e9-bb65-5cdfbf9bb8b8.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index
 </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="are-bitcoin-s-long-term-holders-done-selling">Are Bitcoin’s long-term holders done selling?</h2>
Outflows from the 11 United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have contributed to Bitcoin’s correction. The U.S. ETFs recorded their highest week of outflows since launching, with nearly $900 million in net cumulative outflows over the past week, according to <a href="https://dune.com/hildobby/btc-etfs" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">Dune</a> data.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-05/1e90fda8-9f62-4729-8f36-e13b542e8d36.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin ETF net flows, weekly. Source: Dune
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Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/new-era-bitcoin-whales-47-000-btc-price-pullback">Bitcoin enters ‘new era’ as whales scoop up over 47K BTC during price pullback</a>
Interestingly, data suggests that long-term holders (LTH) at the $70,000 price have finished selling to new investors. Thus, a new active accumulation phase could be&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/AxelAdlerJr/status/1787417824241009085/photo/1" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">starting</a>, according to CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr.’s May 6 X post.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-05/7e61f9f9-4e5c-4a9b-99e7-3c336dd26e0b.jpeg" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC long-term holders accumulation. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This can significantly reduce Bitcoin’s sell pressure, paving the way toward a gradual climb to new highs, according to Eitan Katz, the founder of Kima, a decentralized money transfer protocol. Katz told Cointelegraph:
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “The completion of distribution by long-term holders at the $70,000 mark could indeed alleviate some sell pressure in the market. This scenario might contribute to a more stable environment and provide new investors with a clearer path for growth.”
</blockquote>
However, Bitcoin could remain subdued in the short term, due to concerns over inflation and dampened expectations for rate cuts, according to Mithil Thakore, CEO of Velar, a Bitcoin-native liquidity protocol. Thakore told Cointelegraph:
<blockquote>
 “Last week’s decision by the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at two-decade highs, while signaling potential future reductions, adds complexity to the market landscape. Considering these factors, short-term consolidation below the previous all-time high is conceivable.”
</blockquote>
After the current short-term consolidation, Thakore expects Bitcoin price to reach $100,000 before the end of 2024. He said:&nbsp;
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “The latter part of 2024 holds promise for Bitcoin. Anticipated interest rate reductions, renewed demand in ETFs and advancements in Bitcoin layer-2 solutions may fuel a resurgence, potentially propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs and the coveted $100,000 milestone.”
</blockquote>
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/mr-100-buys-bitcoin-dip-first-halving-btc-bottom">‘Mr. 100’ buys the Bitcoin dip for the first time since halving — Is the BTC bottom in?</a>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin distribution ‘danger zone’ over, analysts say

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Cointelegraph

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