2024

Bitcoin

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Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) price has rebounded by more than 21% in two weeks after hitting a four-month low at $53,550, then reaching around $66,129 on July 17. However, a sharp correction in the coming days is possible based on several technical and onchain factors.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/2aa316c1-45f4-46b9-b25e-7e989f166e7f.png" alt="Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?">
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 BTC/USD daily chart. Source: <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/uaB0EOhM/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView</a>
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The latest BTC price recovery has been fueled by a sharp <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-indicators-flash-greed-fomo-btc-etf-inflows-top-300-million">resurgence</a> in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows and <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-rally-to-65k-fueled-by-complete-exhaustion-from-sellers-glassnode">exhaustion from sellers</a>. 
<h2 id="75-of-bitcoin-s-long-term-traders-are-still-in-profit">75% of Bitcoin’s long-term traders are still in profit</h2>
BTC’s recent break drop to lows of around $53,500 placed a substantial proportion of coins held by short-term holders into a position of loss. Alternatively, mature investors remained steadfast, experiencing a near-negligible decline in profitability.
A report <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-29-2024/?utm_campaign=woc_29_2024&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=woc_newsletter" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">published</a> by market intelligence firm Glassnode reveals that only 2.6% of long-term holders (LTHs) — those who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days — were in a position of loss when the price dropped to $54,000. 
<blockquote>
 “Long-Term Holders have experienced a negligible shift in the proportion of their supply held in profit.”
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/fceafb7d-71c1-42d9-8ff5-8e67a65df7ea.png" alt="Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?">
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 Bitcoin change in percentage supply by profit cohort. Source. Glassnode
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This group mainly consists of those who purchased Bitcoin during the 2021 bull cycle, when it reached its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.
Glassnode’s Percent Supply in Profit metric also reveals that 75% of Bitcoin supply was in profit, adding that the indicator has “historically visited this level during previous bull market corrections.” As long as the metric holds above 75%, most of Bitcoin in supply will remain in profit. 
A high number of BTC held in profit is often seen as a sign of FOMO, which typically precedes or coincides with price corrections. As a result of this onchain signal, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-traders-price-critical-levels-open-interest-all-time-highs">Bitcoin’s price</a> may see pullbacks over the coming days if LTHs decide to book profits.
<h2 id="macroeconomic-prospects-for-bitcoin-price">Macroeconomic prospects for Bitcoin price</h2>
On the other hand, supportive economic data from the United States, particularly increased Wall Street bets on a potential interest rate cut in September, could help boost Bitcoin’s bullish outlook during its ongoing recovery.
According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, as of July 17, futures rate traders have increased their expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September to approximately 93.5%, up from 67.3% 10 days ago. 
<figure>
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/b86c0030-288a-439b-9099-b0e5684d87d7.png" alt="Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Target probability for interest rate cuts in September. Source: CME
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This shift toward a more dovish outlook has gained momentum following an encouraging Consumer Price Index print on July 11, <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-struggles-as-investors-expect-fed-interest-rate-cuts-why">widely viewed as bullish</a> for Bitcoin and other risk assets. 
BTC’s gains also coincide with <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/digital-asset-investment-inflows-record-17-8-b">$1.347 billion worth of weekly inflows</a> into Bitcoin-based investment funds, including US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF). Data from Farside Investors reveals that 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs reported $422.5 million in daily net inflows on July 16, bringing the cumulative net inflows for the last two days to $723.4 billion.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/9b2dbe96-6296-4bc1-83bd-5bbd8ab0fe81.png" alt="Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?">
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 Spot Bitcoin flows table. Source: Farside Investors
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​​The supportive macroeconomic catalysts and inflows into Bitcoin-based funds provide a positive fundamental backdrop, reducing the likelihood of BTC price crashing again in the short term.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-66k-bitcoin-bulls-beat-100m-asks">BTC price tags $66K — can Bitcoin bulls beat out $100M of asks?</a>
<h2 id="bitcoin-price-faces-resistance-at-66-000">Bitcoin price faces resistance at $66,000</h2>
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin price is fighting resistance from the $66,000 level. Note that when the price breached this level on June 18, it recorded 20% losses to $53,500, suggesting that the bears are aggressively defending this zone. Bitcoin bulls were required to produce a decisive daily candlestick close above this level to sustain the recovery.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/4dc12189-0e14-4af5-9870-a6377fbc44ad.png" alt="Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
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Conversely, failure to flip $66,000 into support could cause the price to drop lower, with the accompanying long position liquidations pulling the price toward $62,000. 
Data from CoinGlass showed thick liquidity asks building up above $66,000, reinforcing the importance of the resistance around this area.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/182a749a-7170-402f-ab41-aaa1a729097f.png" alt="Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: Coinglass
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?

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