Kaspa

bullish

Crash

Imagine

Billion

Kaspa has reached the kind of market condition where almost everyone who recently moved coins on-chain is hurting.
New data from KasLens shows approximately 25.06 billion KAS sitting at a loss, compared with only 2.70 billion KAS currently in profit.
With Kaspa’s circulating supply around 27.81 billion KAS, that means roughly 90% of circulating KAS is underwater based on the metric’s last-moved price methodology.
That is an extraordinary amount of unrealized pain.
But it also creates a more complicated question for KAS investors: is this evidence of capitulation near a long-term bottom, or simply confirmation that the Kaspa downtrend remains extremely strong?
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="kaspa-supply-in-loss-has-exploded">Kaspa Supply in Loss Has Exploded</h2>
The KasLens chart shows how dramatically the situation has changed.
In September, the amount of KAS in profit briefly climbed above 12 billion as Kaspa price recovered. Since then, the two lines have moved decisively apart.
By November 15:
<ul>
 <li>KAS in loss: 25.057 billion</li>
 <li>KAS in profit: 2.703 billion</li>
</ul>
That puts approximately 90.2% of <a href="https://captainaltcoin.com/kaspas-new-supply-is-shrinking-fast-heres-the-math/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">the tracked circulating supply </a>in loss and only around 9.7% in profit.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 25 BILLION $KAS underwater. Almost the entire supply is sitting at a loss. And yet, the Kaspa community is still here. Still building. Still believing. Imagine what happens when the tide finally turns. On-chain data by KasLens https://t.co/be6U9L3tu9— KasLens (@KaspaLens) <a href="https://x.com/KaspaLens/status/2121784349934641172?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">November 15, 2026</a>
</blockquote>
KasLens defines the metric using the price at which KAS was last moved on-chain. If the current KAS price is below that level, the coins are classified as being in loss.
Importantly, this does not mean holders have actually realized those losses. It describes the current value of their positions relative to their on-chain cost basis.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="why-kaspa-holders-are-so-deep-underwater">Why Kaspa Holders Are So Deep Underwater</h2>
Kaspa price is now around $0.0268, down roughly 25% over the past month and about 87% below its $0.2074 all-time high.
The latest move has pushed KAS back toward the $0.022-$0.027 area that several analysts have identified as a potential long-term accumulation region.
At today’s price, Kaspa’s entire market capitalization is only around $746-$747 million despite having 27.81 billion KAS already circulating.
That combination explains the KasLens reading.
Anyone who moved KAS on-chain at significantly higher prices now contributes to the enormous supply-in-loss figure.
Read also: <a href="https://captainaltcoin.com/prediction-markets-could-be-coming-to-kaspa/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Prediction Markets Could Be Coming to Kaspa!</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="is-90-of-kas-underwater-actually-bullish">Is 90% of KAS Underwater Actually Bullish?</h2>
This is where the data becomes interesting.
An extreme percentage of supply in loss can appear during capitulation phases because speculative holders have already suffered substantial damage and weaker hands begin giving up.
<a href="https://captainaltcoin.com/kaspa-price-setup-points-to-5x-potential-but-this-level-must-hold/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">If Kaspa price stops crashing</a> while the supply-in-loss reading remains extremely elevated, that would be much more constructive. It would indicate that enormous unrealized losses are no longer producing additional downside.
But there is another side to the equation.
Those 25 billion underwater KAS also represent potential overhead supply.
If KAS eventually recovers toward the prices where holders originally acquired or moved their coins, some may sell simply to get back to break-even.
So “almost everyone is underwater” should not automatically be interpreted as a bullish signal.
The real signal would come from price behavior after reaching this extreme.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="kaspa-development-has-not-stopped-with-the-price-crash">Kaspa Development Has Not Stopped With the Price Crash</h2>
The ecosystem is also becoming more active even as KAS price struggles.
A decentralized limit-order-book prototype recently launched on Kaspa testnet, allowing experimentation with KCC-20 and KRON token trading without a centralized service controlling orders or user keys. It remains a testnet product and has not undergone a full security audit.
Developers are also working on a permissionless prediction market targeted for late 2026, while a separate proposal outlines a KAS-backed decentralized stablecoin. Both remain early-stage projects rather than established adoption.
Meanwhile, Kaspa’s emission structure continues tightening. Roughly 27.81 billion of a maximum 28.704 billion KAS are already circulating, leaving only about 893 million KAS still to be mined.
That means approximately 96.9% of maximum KAS supply already exists.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="our-take-this-is-capitulation-data-not-a-bottom-signal">Our Take: This Is Capitulation Data, Not a Bottom Signal</h2>
The 25 billion KAS underwater figure is one of the more interesting Kaspa metrics we have seen recently, but I would not call it a buy signal by itself.
What it tells us is that the market has already inflicted enormous damage.
Kaspa price is 87% below its peak, roughly nine out of every ten circulating KAS are sitting at an unrealized loss under the KasLens methodology, and sentiment around KAS is dramatically different from its 2024 highs.
If KAS continues falling below the $0.022-$0.025 region, then the huge supply-in-loss reading was simply documenting a worsening bear market.
But if Kaspa price starts holding these levels despite nearly the entire supply being underwater, that would be much more compelling.
Markets often become interesting when almost nobody is comfortable holding them.
Kaspa appears to be getting very close to that point.
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The post <a href="https://captainaltcoin.com/25-billion-kas-is-underwater-as-kaspa-holders-face-extreme-losses/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">25 Billion KAS Is Underwater as Kaspa Holders Face Extreme Losses</a> appeared first on <a href="https://captainaltcoin.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">CaptainAltcoin</a>.

25 Billion KAS Is Underwater as Kaspa Holders Face Extreme Losses

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