Long

Quantum

<p><strong><a href="https://twitter.com/Benzinga/status/2033090826721702169" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">A new research report</a></strong>examining Bitcoin’s exposure to future quantum computing breakthroughs suggests the risk is real but distant.</p>
<p>In a joint study titled “Bitcoin and Quantum Computing,” published on March 12, 2026, analysts from Ark Invest and Unchained concluded that roughly 35% of the Bitcoin supply could theoretically be vulnerable if powerful quantum machines are eventually developed, but current technology remains far from that capability.</p>
<p>The researchers argue that while the theoretical attack surface exists, the Bitcoin network would likely have years or decades to adapt before quantum computing poses a practical threat.</p>
<h3 id="nearly-6-9-million-btc-could-be-theoretically-exposed">Nearly 6.9 Million BTC Could Be Theoretically Exposed</h3>
<p>The report estimates that about 6.9 million BTC, representing roughly 34.6% of the total supply, sits in address types that could become vulnerable if a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) were created.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
 <p>Ark Invest Warns 35% Of Bitcoin Supply Could Face Future Quantum Risks, But There Is Time To Adapt.<a href="https://t.co/mMOcqJHHTt" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://t.co/mMOcqJHHTt</a></p>
 <p>— Benzinga (@Benzinga) <a href="https://twitter.com/Benzinga/status/2033090826721702169?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">March 15, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>
<p>These coins fall into several categories based on how their cryptographic keys are exposed on-chain.</p>
<p>The largest group involves reused addresses, where public keys have already been revealed during previous transactions. Researchers estimate that roughly 5 million BTC, or about 25% of supply, falls into this category.</p>
<p>Another 1.7 million BTC (around 8.6%) sits in older Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses. In these early Bitcoin address formats, the public key is visible directly on the blockchain. This category includes an estimated 1 million BTC believed to belong to Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.</p>
<p>The report also highlights about 200,000 BTC (roughly 1%) linked to Taproot (P2TR) addresses that could potentially be migrated in the future because certain key-path transaction mechanics expose public keys during spending.</p>
<h3 id="quantum-hardware-remains-far-from-breaking-bitcoin">Quantum Hardware Remains Far From Breaking Bitcoin</h3>
<p>Despite these theoretical vulnerabilities, the report stresses that current quantum technology remains far from being capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography.</p>
<p>Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) for securing transactions. To break this system, researchers estimate that a quantum computer would require around 2,330 logical qubits along with billions of quantum operations.</p>
<p>Today’s quantum computers operate within what researchers call the “Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum” (NISQ) era. Current systems typically have only around 100 logical qubits, far below the level needed to threaten Bitcoin’s security.</p>
<p>Ark Invest researcher David Puell argues that the development of quantum capabilities will likely occur gradually rather than through a sudden breakthrough sometimes described as “Q-Day.”</p>
<p>If quantum computing progresses through visible milestones, developers would likely have significant time to introduce upgrades to Bitcoin’s security framework.</p>
<h3 id="quantum-breakthrough-would-impact-entire-internet">Quantum Breakthrough Would Impact Entire Internet</h3>
<p>Another key point in the report is that Bitcoin would likely not be the first system affected by a major quantum breakthrough.</p>
<p>The same cryptographic algorithms used by Bitcoin are widely deployed across the global internet, banking infrastructure, and digital communication systems. A quantum computer powerful enough to break Bitcoin signatures would likely compromise many existing security protocols across governments and financial institutions.</p>
<p>Such a development would likely trigger a coordinated global transition toward post-quantum cryptography across multiple industries.</p>
<h3 id="developers-already-exploring-post-quantum-solutions">Developers Already Exploring Post-Quantum Solutions</h3>
<p>According to the report, the Bitcoin ecosystem has already begun exploring ways to mitigate potential future quantum risks.</p>
<p>One possible approach would involve introducing quantum-resistant address formats through a soft fork, allowing users to migrate funds into wallets protected by newer cryptographic algorithms such as ML-DSA or SLH-DSA.</p>
<p>Another development referenced in the research is BIP-360, a proposal known as Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR). This upgrade aims to disable certain key-path spending mechanisms that currently reveal public keys during transactions.</p>
<p>Over time, the community could encourage users to move coins into new address formats that remain secure even against future quantum computers.</p>
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<h3 id="potential-governance-decisions-ahead">Potential Governance Decisions Ahead</h3>
<p>One long-term scenario discussed in the report involves how the Bitcoin community might handle coins that remain in vulnerable address formats.</p>
<p>If quantum threats ever became realistic, developers and network participants might need to decide whether to freeze or restrict coins that have not migrated to safer cryptographic formats.</p>
<p>Such decisions would likely require extensive discussion and consensus across the ecosystem.</p>
<h3 id="long-timeline-for-quantum-risk">Long Timeline for Quantum Risk</h3>
<p>Ark Invest and Unchained ultimately conclude that quantum computing represents a long-term technological consideration rather than an immediate security threat.</p>
<p>While a portion of Bitcoin’s supply sits in theoretically vulnerable address formats, the gap between current quantum hardware and the capabilities needed to break Bitcoin’s encryption remains substantial.</p>
<p>For now, the report suggests the Bitcoin network has significant time to evolve its cryptographic defenses before quantum computing becomes a practical risk.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.ethnews.com/ark-invest-report-35-of-bitcoin-supply-theoretically-vulnerable-to-quantum-computing/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Ark Invest Report: 35% of Bitcoin Supply Theoretically Vulnerable to Quantum Computing</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.ethnews.com" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">ETHNews</a>.</p>

Ark Invest Report: 35% of Bitcoin Supply Theoretically Vulnerable to Quantum Computing

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