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<p>The global economy is about to experience its most sluggish decade since the 1960s. This forecast could well reshape economic power dynamics on a global scale. The alert comes from the World Bank, whose latest report, published on June 10, 2025, paints a bleak picture of the near future amidst increasing trade tensions and prolonged political uncertainties.</p>
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  <h2 class="in-brief--title" id="in-brief">In brief</h2>
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   <li>The World Bank forecasts a decade of the lowest global economic growth since the 1960s, amid rising trade tensions.</li>
   <li>Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, including a universal 10 % tariff, caused immediate market instability and widespread forecast downgrades.</li>
   <li>The United States, European Union, and Japan are among the major economies whose outlooks have been revised downward.</li>
   <li>China buckles the trend, maintaining its growth forecasts thanks to financial stability deemed sufficient to face external disruptions.</li>
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<h2 id="the-global-halt-growth-under-pressure">The global halt : growth under pressure</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-hit-by-fresh-us-eu-trade-tensions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">trade tensions reignited by Trump become increasingly sustained</a>, the World Bank sounds the alarm in its semi-annual report published on June 10. The global economy is heading toward its weakest decade since the 1960s, with sluggish average growth and persistent trade tensions.</p>
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<p>The report announces a downgrade in forecasts for nearly two-thirds of countries, highlighting the aggressive trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.</p>
<p><a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/8912c157-f0e7-4d9e-b6f3-94ae0940e458/content" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">The report</a> states:</p>
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 <p><em>Almost two-thirds of countries worldwide see their growth forecasts revised downward</em>.</p>
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<p>The implementation of a universal 10 % tariff on all American imports, as well as targeted increases on steel and aluminum, has generated instability in financial markets, intensified in early April.</p>
<p>The effects of these protectionist decisions are multiple and already measurable :</p>
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 <li>A revised downward global growth forecast : 2.3 % in 2025 (down from 2.7 % in January), and 2.6 % for 2027 ;</li>
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 <li>The United States affected: forecast downgrades for 2025 and 2026 due to a drop in private consumption and investor distrust ;</li>
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 <li>Tariffs deemed illegal in May but temporarily maintained following an appeal by the U.S. government ;</li>
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 <li>The market crash in April, marked by a surge in volatility and significant uncertainty about future trade policies ;</li>
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 <li>The risk of a global trade lockdown in the second half of the year, according to the World Bank, which talks about a possible “<em>global trade seizure</em>” and “<em>turmoil in financial markets</em>” ;</li>
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 <li>A global recession not excluded but currently estimated at less than 10 % probability.</li>
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<p>This accumulation of negative signals creates a tense economic climate, where the trade war initiated by Washington threatens the stability of the global system.</p>
<p>Advanced economies such as Japan, the United States, and the eurozone are experiencing significant downgrades in their outlooks, confirming the systemic nature of this emerging crisis.</p>
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<h2 id="h-between-resilience-and-fracture-china-holds-steady-the-west-wavers">Between resilience and fracture : China holds steady, the West wavers</h2>
<p>Against the tide of this widespread gloom, China, a member of the BRICS group, stands out as an exception in the report. Unlike the United States, the European Union, or Japan, China’s growth forecasts have not been revised downward.</p>
<p>The World Bank attributes this stability to the strength of China’s financial system and mentions its ability to face “<em>significant headwinds</em>” amid “<em>high global political uncertainties</em>“.</p>
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<p>This differentiation signals a possible shift in the global economic hierarchy. While the United States suffers a contraction in private consumption and declining investor confidence, Beijing appears to be capitalizing on the situation by presenting itself as a pole of relative stability.</p>
<p>Maintaining Chinese forecasts could strengthen its position on the international economic stage, especially if trade tensions persist and further weaken Western economies.</p>
<p>This imbalance could have notable effects on alternative financial markets, particularly cryptocurrencies. If protectionist policies continue, investors may keep seeking safe-haven assets, such as <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/galaxy-bitcoin-volatility-drops-below-major-stock-indices/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">bitcoin, which is becoming less volatile</a>, decoupled from traditional geopolitical tensions.</p>

The Decade Of Economic Abyss Has Begun

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