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As China increasingly reveals its totalitarian face, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris raise serious concerns about their capacity to defend Western interests against Beijing. Are they on the verge of capitulating to Xi Jinping and abandoning Taiwan?
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The Chinese File
The issue of Sino-American relations is emerging as a major stake in the upcoming American presidential election.
While Joe Biden has adopted a tough stance towards Beijing, some worry about the ability of his potential successors to maintain this firmness. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris indeed raise doubts about their resolve to stand up to China.
Although for different reasons, these two candidates could fail to protect American interests against Chinese ambitions.
A Trump About-Face on China?
Donald Trump forged an image of an anti-Beijing hawk during his first term. He launched a trade war and took measures against Chinese espionage. Paradoxically, this reputation might allow him to make a 180-degree turn without too much political damage.
Several worrying signs suggest that Trump could adopt a more conciliatory approach towards China if he returns to power. His about-face on TikTok last March, after a meeting with a billionaire having interests in the company, illustrates his sensitivity to financial incentives. Will Trump yield to the temptation to sell American interests to the highest bidder?
His record on export control or trade negotiations already shows a tendency to back down in the face of Chinese pressure in exchange for symbolic victories. The “phase 1” trade agreement signed in 2020 is a perfect example. Trump settled for Chinese promises of purchases that were never kept, abandoning any real pressure on Beijing.
Even more concerning, Trump seems to question America’s commitment to Taiwan. In a recent interview, he criticized the island for its semiconductor industry and highlighted the difficulty of defending it militarily.
Republicans: All Pro-China and Pro-Putin?
A part of Trump’s electoral base also seems to be evolving towards pro-Beijing positions.
Media figures like Tucker Carlson advocate a rapprochement with China in the name of fighting against the “American leftists”.
If Trump adheres to this vision of a global alliance of autocracies against the left, the consequences could be disastrous for American security and the international order.
Taiwan, Soon Abandoned to China?
Trump’s attitude towards Taiwan is particularly concerning. His transactional approach to foreign policy could push him to consider the defense of the island as an unnecessary burden. Such an abandonment would encourage Chinese expansionist ambitions and shake the confidence of American allies in the region.
The loss of Taiwan would have major strategic consequences. It would severely compromise the security of Japan, a key US ally, and give China increased control over the region’s vital sea routes.
The island’s semiconductor industry, crucial to the global economy, would fall into Beijing’s hands.
Such a scenario would mark the beginning of Chinese dominance in Asia, questioning the global balance of power. The United States would lose its influence in a key region, with considerable economic and geopolitical repercussions.
Harris and the Risk of a Return to the Obama Strategy
Concerns about Kamala Harris are less acute but should not be overlooked. The vice president might be tempted to return to the “engagement strategy” advocated during the Obama era, despite its glaring failure.
Her past criticism of tariffs as a national security tool raises doubts about her willingness to continue Biden’s economic policy towards China. Her national security advisor, Philip H. Gordon, has also recently defended the merits of this strategy with Beijing.
This vision seems to ignore the changes that have occurred under Xi Jinping and the necessity of preserving American industrial capacities in the face of Chinese threats. It also underestimates Beijing’s will to reduce its economic dependence on the United States.
The risk is that Harris does not perceive Biden’s firm policy as a strategic necessity but as a Trumpist legacy to be abandoned.
While not as alarming as in Trump’s case, this scenario worries many people in Washington…
A More and More Authoritarian China
The geopolitics promoted by Obama with China, based on the hope of progressive regime liberalization through economic exchanges, has shown its limits. Far from opening up politically, China has used its economic development to strengthen its authoritarianism and geopolitical ambitions.
Returning to this approach would be a major strategic mistake: it would ignore the reality of a China that has now become the main rival of the United States.
The engagement strategy certainly brought mutual benefits, but it also allowed China to catch up technologically and militarily. Continuing this policy would mean strengthening an increasingly threatening rival to American interests!
A Necessary Strategic Continuity
Faced with an increasingly authoritarian China, the United States must maintain a firm line on economic, diplomatic, and military fronts. The goal is to deter Beijing from launching a devastating war in Asia.
Biden’s policy, though imperfect, is heading in the right direction. It aims to strengthen American alliances in Asia, support Taiwan, and limit economic dependence on China. Going back would be a major strategic mistake with potentially catastrophic consequences.
This approach does not mean a return to the Cold War. It aims to establish a new balance, a 21st-century peaceful coexistence.
What Challenges Lie Ahead with China?
The next American president will face considerable challenges in their policy towards China:
- Maintaining economic pressure while avoiding a dangerous escalation
- Strengthening alliances in Asia without provoking aggressive reactions from Beijing
- Effectively supporting Taiwan while preserving stability in the strait
- Cooperating with China on global issues like combating climate change
These delicate balances will require a clear strategic vision and great diplomatic skill. Yet, neither Trump nor Harris have demonstrated that they are up to this challenge….
Neither Trump nor Harris seem up to the challenge. The future of security in Asia and the international order could well be at stake in this election.
American voters will have to be aware of this fundamental issue when making their choice. The next president will bear the heavy responsibility of defending American (and Western) interests against an increasingly threatening China.
Sino-American relations will shape the world of the coming decades. Finding the right balance between confrontation (between nuclear powers) and cooperation will be the great geopolitical challenge of our time. The success or failure of the next American administration on this Chinese front will have global repercussions for generations to come. Will they be up to the task? I doubt it.