2024

Donald Trump

Joe Biden

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 The 2024 Democratic Party platform does not mention cryptocurrencies or digital assets at all, despite earlier suggestions that Vice President Kamala Harris might shift away from the Biden administration’s anti-crypto stance. Prediction markets have also shown some volatility over the past few days as the race between Harris and Donald Trump becomes tighter and tighter. Meanwhile, Solana fans are smiling as the Solana-based trading platform Drift has launched a new prediction market service.
 <h2 id="2024-democratic-party-platform-ignores-crypto">2024 Democratic Party Platform Ignores Crypto</h2>
 Despite hints from senior Democratic officials that Vice President Kamala Harris's presidential campaign might shift away from the Biden administration’s anti-crypto stance, the <a href="https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/FINAL-MASTER-PLATFORM.pdf" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">2024 Democratic Party platform</a> does not even mention cryptocurrencies and digital asset policy at all. The 91-page document addresses a wide range of issues, including corporate greed, housing, education, and U.S. foreign policy, but makes no reference to monetary debasement or austerity measures, despite the country’s $35 trillion debt.&nbsp;
 Instead, the platform advocates for increased government spending, like expanding social entitlement programs and safeguarding Social Security.
 2024 Democratic Party platform table of contents (Source: <a href="http://democrats.org" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Democrats.org</a>)
 Crypto’s absence has raised some doubts about the sincerity of Harris's ”reset” on crypto policy. Promises from senior Democrats to reverse the Biden administration’s stance have been met with skepticism from industry leaders and investors. Fred Thiel, the CEO of the Bitcoin mining company MARA, is <a href="https://x.com/fgthiel/status/1823171422660731052" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">not at all surprised</a> at the omission. He believes that the mining industry might now explore opportunities outside the U.S. depending on the election outcome.
 At a Harris campaign event ”Crypto4Harris,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer pledged pro-crypto policies if Harris wins the presidency. Schumer specifically talked about the risks of the U.S. falling behind in digital asset innovation, and warned that other nations could take the lead if the U.S. does not embrace these technologies.
 As the Democratic Party prepares to finalize its platform, most experts believe that the document will pass <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/dnc-party-platform-takeaways-2024-1940984" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">without any changes</a>. However, Vivek Ramaswamy suggested that Harris might pivot on crypto issues to attract single-issue crypto voters as the election date fast approaches.
 <h2 id="crypto-could-sway-key-2024-swing-states">Crypto Could Sway Key 2024 Swing States</h2>
 Crypto may play a less partisan role in the outcome of the 2024 United States presidential election, particularly in key swing states. Research commissioned by <a href="https://www.coinbase.com/blog/why-the-presidential-election-could-be-decided-by-young-crypto-voters" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coinbase</a> revealed that the proportion of crypto holders under 35 who identify as Democrats or Republicans in these states is almost equal. In fact,&nbsp; 41% identify as Democrats and 39% as Republicans.
 Coinbase State of Crypto report (Source: <a href="https://www.coinbase.com/blog/why-the-presidential-election-could-be-decided-by-young-crypto-voters" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Coinbase</a>)&nbsp;
 This data was gathered by Impact Research in July, and did not specify whether the polling happened before or after President Joe Biden announced that he will not seek reelection in November.
 Coinbase pointed out just how influential young voters are as they could be decisive in battleground states where a small number of votes could determine the election outcome. Historically, higher turnout among young voters has been a major factor in past elections. However, this is not always the case in midterm elections, according to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Pew Research data</a> that indicates that only 36% of midterm voters in 2022 were under 50, compared to 40% in 2018.
 Candidates from both parties will need to pay very close attention to the young, diverse, pro-crypto constituency that could be critical in 2024. Republican nominee Donald Trump has already shifted from calling Bitcoin a ”scam” to launching non-fungible tokens and advocating for Bitcoin mining in the U.S. Meanwhile, the Democratic ticket that is led by Vice President Kamala Harris has been very silent on digital assets since its launch in July.
 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polls</a> show that Harris and Trump are in a statistical tie nationwide. The races in crucial swing states are also just as close. In the 2020 election, Biden's victory over Trump was secured by a margin of about 80,000 votes across three key states. This just proves how important it is for the presidential candidates to win the hearts of the young, crypto-friendly voters.
 <h2 id="prediction-markets-see-volatility">Prediction Markets See Volatility</h2>
 This past weekend saw increased activity among Polymarket traders betting on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Shares representing Kamala Harris's chances of winning even dropped by close to 8 percentage points. This led to a brief tie between Harris and Donald Trump before Harris regained a 4-point lead on Monday morning. At press time, Polymarket traders believe Harris has a 50% chance of winning the elections, while Trump’s odds stand at 49%.
 Trump and Harris presidential odds (Source: <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1724127683215" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Polymarket</a>)
 Some traders believe Trump's resilience in the market is due to outdated assumptions from when Joe Biden was still expected to be the Democratic nominee. On the political betting podcast <a href="https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/star-spangled-gamblers-keendawg-pratik-6ZDjSozTF2L/" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Star Spangled Gamblers</a>, a gambler&nbsp; suggested that the market has not correctly adjusted to Trump's chances after Biden withdrew.
 Polymarket began the election cycle with a notable premium for Trump. This led some people to question its accuracy because of the embargo on American users. In contrast, PredictIt shows Harris with a much bigger lead over Trump.
 2024 presidential odds (Source: <a href="https://www.predictit.org/" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">PredictIt</a>)
 While prediction markets are not always accurate, Harris still holds a slight edge in the race. <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">RealClearPolling</a> gives her a 1.5-percentage-point lead over Trump, while Nate Silver's <a href="https://substack.com/@natesilver/p-146002606" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Silver Bulletin</a> model suggests a 2.5-percentage-point advantage for Harris. The upcoming Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where Harris will officially be named the party's candidate, could lead to increased activity and volatility in prediction markets.
 <h2 id="solana-traders-get-new-prediction-market-on-drift">Solana Traders Get New Prediction Market on Drift</h2>
 Solana-based crypto trading platform <a href="https://x.com/DriftProtocol" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">Drift</a> is expanding its offerings by adding prediction markets to its product lineup. This will be very similar to Polymarket’s election betting but with unique features.&nbsp;
 The new BET service will allow traders to bet on binary outcomes, like election results, by using a wide range of cryptocurrencies as collateral. Unlike Polymarket, which operates on Ethereum and Polygon and primarily uses USDC, Drift’s platform will integrate more deeply with decentralized finance (DeFi) by making it possible for users to earn yield on their collateral before the outcome of events. Additionally, users can hedge their bets with structured trades on the price movements of various cryptocurrencies.
 Prediction markets have become very popular this election cycle, and mainstream media very often refers to statistics from platforms like Polymarket. These markets are fueled by traders investing big amounts of money into outcomes they believe are most likely.&nbsp;
 Drift originally focused on perpetuals trading, but has diversified into various DeFi product lines, including borrow-lend services, yield-generating strategies, and even a trading page catering to election-themed meme coin enthusiasts.
 Drift co-founder Cindy Leow explained that the platform is targeting Solana traders who have been a bit more hesitant to use Polymarket because of its reliance on Polygon. Drift wants to provide a more appealing alternative by taking advantage of the Solana blockchain and offering a broader range of collateral options and DeFi integrations.
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Harris Under Fire as Democratic Party’s 2024 Platform Ignores Crypto

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