United

Donald Trump

Joe Biden

Polymarket betters wager on the outcome of the United States presidential election is now a “tossup,” the crypto predictions platform said in an Aug. 7 <a href="https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1821205667350450623" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">post</a> on the X platform.&nbsp;
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump still has a slight lead at 51%, but Democratic nominee Kamala Harris closely trails him with 48% odds of winning. The balanced odds mark a reversal of fortunes for Trump, who has maintained a strong lead on the platform since June. 
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform where users can bet on real-world event outcomes using cryptocurrencies. The estimates are based on upward of $500 million worth of live bets placed on the platform in a contest to guess the winner of the US presidential election in November.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/12a8e734-c693-49d3-9d68-6575956421ef.jpg" alt="US Presidential election now a ‘tossup’ — Polymarket " title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 The US Presidential race is practically neck-and-neck. Source: Polymarket
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-senators-call-cftc-ban-election-betting">US senators urge CFTC to finalize ban on election betting</a>
According to Polymarket, users have bet approximately $67 million on a Trump win and around $54 million on Harris. They’ve also wagered hundreds of millions of dollars on low-probability outcomes with high potential payoffs. 
Some $46 million rests on the scenario — which has been ascribed 1% odds — that former First Lady Michelle Obama somehow becomes the 47th US president. 
Vice President Harris has been the presumptive Democratic nominee since July when President Joe Biden decided not to seek another term. Harris officially secured the nomination on Aug. 6. 
In national <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/biden-trump/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">polling</a>, Trump’s lead over Biden expanded dramatically in July after a disappointing debate performance raised questions about Biden’s fitness for another term. That trend <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">reversed</a> sharply after Biden stepped back and endorsed Harris. 
Polymarket became a leading crypto betting market during a frenzy of onchain speculation around the US elections. In July, Polymarket <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-tops-one-billion-betting-volume-amid-us-election-hype">exceeded $1 billion in total betting volume</a>, which has since risen to more than $1.1 billion, <a href="https://dune.com/petertherock/polymarket-on-polygon" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">according</a> to Dune Analytics. 
Polymarket has been used mainly for speculating on the outcome of political events, but the platform also features prediction markets for crypto, sports, business and the 2024 Olympic games.
Polymarket has been focused heavily on growth this year, but its founder is <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-founder-hints-future-fees">reportedly considering implementing fees</a> in the future. 
Magazine:&nbsp;<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/thorchain-founder-jp-thor-vampire-attack-defi/">THORChain founder and his plan to ‘vampire attack’ all of DeFi</a>

US Presidential election now a ‘tossup’ — Polymarket

Cointelegraph

Other articles published on Aug 7, 2024

BNB Will Surpass $1000 This Year Regardless of Bitcoin Drop; Thousands More Sign Up To This New C...

London-Based Capula Investment Reveals $464M in Bitcoin ETFs

BlackRock Issues Urgent Warning Over Rising Crypto Scams Targeting ETF Investors

Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy Plans to Raise $2B to Buy More Bitcoin

Analysts Expect Bitcoin to Drop

Iris Energy: Electricity Costs Surge in July

Join our free newsletter for daily crypto updates!