David Vance

In the Bitcoin and the overall crypto market, August has long been observed as a quieter month, with historical data showing a consistent downturn in both activity and asset value during this time of the year. Coinbase’s <a href="https://www.coinbase.com/institutional/research-insights/research/weekly-market-commentary" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">analysis</a> further highlights this pattern in its latest weekly report. According to Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han, there is a noticeable reduction in trading volumes and a <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/is-a-major-bitcoin-dip-coming-what-the-coinbase-index-tells-us/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">decrease in the market’s dynamism</a> that characterizes the month. 
<h2 id="an-impending-major-dip-for-bitcoin-in-august">An Impending Major Dip For Bitcoin In August?</h2> 
The analysts point out that this seasonal trend can’t be seen as a mere coincidence as it is a recurrent phenomenon. In the “Coinbase Weekly” report, they cited that Bitcoin spot volumes in August 2023 fell by 19% compared to June of the same year. 
Related Reading: <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-price-potential-analyst-maps-path-to-700000-and-beyond/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">Bitcoin’s Price Potential: Analyst Maps Path To $700,000 And Beyond</a> 
Similarly, Bitcoin futures volumes dipped by 30% across global centralized exchanges during the same timeframe. This decreased activity is significant enough to<a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-price-potential-analyst-maps-path-to-700000-and-beyond/" target="_blank" rel="noopener "> influence market behavior</a>, potentially leading to increased volatility due to thinner liquidity. The Coinbase’s report further details that on average, Bitcoin has shown a decline of 2.8% in August over the last five years. 
According to the analysts, this trend is not isolated to Bitcoin; it reflects a <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/news/ethereum/ethereum-vs-bitcoin-why-eth-could-see-larger-fluctuations-soon-qcp-reveals/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">broader market behaviour</a> that could be attributed to various factors, including <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/mt-gox-creditors-reclaim-59000-bitcoin-via-exchanges-more-redistribution-imminent/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">seasonal investment</a> shifts and lower participation rates during the summer months in many regions. They further predicted that this August may not stray from the established pattern, expecting a continuation of subdued market performance. 
<h2 id="outlook-from-analysts-in-the-community">Outlook From Analysts In The Community</h2> 
Echoing the sentiment from Coinbase, other prominent figures in the crypto space have shared their observations. Analyst Jelle <a href="https://x.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1819275897918148967" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">pointed out</a> on Elon Musk’s social platform X that despite a positive close in July, the historical struggle of the market in Q3 is quite noteworthy, with recovery often not beginning until October. 
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GT9dyCrXgAE4ALj?format=jpg&amp;name=medium" alt="Bitcoin monthly returns." width="1200" height="647"> 
Similarly, analyst Micheal Van De Poppe <a href="https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1819274433908875739" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">suggested</a> that while August and September typically record poorer performance, there might be a shift in momentum starting mid-August, potentially <a href="https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/btc/bitcoin-price-gains-65k/" target="_blank" rel="noopener ">setting the stage for new all-time highs</a> in the following months. 
Van De Poppe also disclosed that to see Bitcoin’s continuation towards its all-time high (ATH), price would need to hold above $60,000 to 61,000 region. 
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-medium" src="https://www.tradingview.com/x/iIfRsxxz/" alt="Bitcoin (BTC) BTC price chart on TradingView" width="2770" height="1496"> 
Meanwhile, at the time of writing, Bitcoin has seen a slight uptick increasing by 0.7% while still trading above $63,000. Commenting on BTC’s current price action, Jelle <a href="https://x.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1819328143917809954" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">noted</a>: 
<blockquote>
 Bitcoin is still trading inside the channel we’ve spent the past months inside of, but holding above key supports. Looks like a breakout is getting closer by the day. Patience, until then.
</blockquote> 
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Will August Again Be A Drag For Bitcoin? Here’s What Historical Data Says

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