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Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former safety researcher at ChatGPT creator OpenAI, has doubled down on artificial general intelligence (AGI) in his newest essay series on artificial intelligence.
Dubbed “Situational Awareness,” the series offers a glance at the state of AI systems and their promising potential in the next decade. The full series of essays is <a href="https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">collected</a> in a 165-page PDF file updated on June 4.
In the essays, the researcher paid specific attention to AGI, a type of AI that matches or surpasses human capabilities across a wide range of cognitive tasks. AGI is one of many different types of artificial intelligence, including artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI).
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-06/e71781d4-8462-4b19-a167-d611aa8224d6.png" alt="" title="">
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 Types of artificial intelligence. Source: Innovate Forge
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“AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible,” Aschenbrenner declared, predicting that AGI machines will outpace college graduates by 2025 or 2026. He wrote:
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 “By the end of the decade, they [AGI machines] will be smarter than you or I; we will have superintelligence, in the true sense of the word. Along the way, national security forces not seen in half a century will be unleashed.”
</blockquote>
According to Aschenbrenner, AI systems could potentially possess intellectual capabilities comparable to those of a professional computer scientist. He also made another bold prediction that AI labs would be able to train general-purpose language models within minutes, stating:
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 “To put this in perspective, suppose GPT-4 training took 3 months. In 2027, a leading AI lab will be able to train a GPT-4-level model in a minute.”
</blockquote>
Predicting the success of AGI, Aschenbrenner called on the community to face its reality. According to the researcher, the “smartest people” in the AI industry have converged on a perspective he calls “AGI realism,” which is based on three foundational principles tied to the national security and AI development of the United States.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/employees-protecting-ai-whistleblower-rights">Former OpenAI, Anthropic employees call for ‘right to warn’ on AI risks</a>
Aschenbrenner’s AGI series comes a while after he was reportedly <a href="https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-researchers-including-ally-of-sutskever-fired-for-alleged-leaking" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">fired for allegedly “leaking” information</a> from OpenAI. Aschenbrenner was also reportedly an ally of OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, who reportedly participated in a failed effort to oust OpenAI CEO <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/top-people-in-crypto-and-blockchain-2023/sam-altman">Sam Altman</a> in 2023. Aschenbrenner’s latest series is also dedicated to Sutskever.
Aschenbrenner also recently founded an investment firm focused on AGI, with anchor investments from figures like Stripe CEO Patrick Collison, his blog <a href="https://situational-awareness.ai/leopold-aschenbrenner/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">reads</a>.
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/crypto-voters-are-already-affecting-the-2024-presidential-election/">Crypto voters are already disrupting the 2024 election — and it’s set to continue</a>

Former OpenAI researcher foresees AGI reality in 2027

Cointelegraph

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