Core

<h2 id="quick-take">Quick Take</h2>
<ul>
<li>U.S. CPI inflation matched forecasts by most measures, but we are nowhere near done yet.</li>
<li>Contrarian views have done well this cycle, a recession hasn&#8217;t occurred, and we are most likely facing the possibility of stagflation.</li>
<li>The Fed has gone on the most aggressive tightening cycle in the past forty years, and core inflation is still around 5.5% — which has not budged for an entire year, slightly down from 6%.</li>
<li>Core goods price inflation increased from 1.6% to 2.1%, while the monthly increase in core services CPI less shelter was up 0.3%.</li>
<li>Unemployment is still at historic lows at 3.4% — which is not what the Fed wants to see. This will complicate their job in getting inflation to the 2% target.</li>
<li>A similar pattern this decade may likely be the 70s, where we had high inflation and elevated interest rates.</li>
</ul>
<figure id="attachment_324403" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-324403" style="width: 639px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img class="wp-image-324403 size-full" src="https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/month.png" alt="Core services CPI less shelter: (Source: MacroScope)" width="639" height="216" srcset="https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/month.png 639w, https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/month-300x101.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-324403" class="wp-caption-text">Core services CPI less shelter: (Source: MacroScope)</figcaption></figure>
<figure id="attachment_324401" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-324401" style="width: 640px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img class="wp-image-324401 size-full" src="https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/UR.png" alt="Unemployment Rate: (Source: FRED)" width="640" height="480" srcset="https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/UR.png 640w, https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/UR-300x225.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-324401" class="wp-caption-text">Unemployment Rate: (Source: FRED)</figcaption></figure>
<figure id="attachment_324402" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-324402" style="width: 796px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img class="wp-image-324402 size-full" src="https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/core1.png" alt="Core Inflation: (Source: Trading Economics)" width="796" height="423" srcset="https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/core1.png 796w, https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/core1-300x159.png 300w, https://cryptoslate.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/core1-768x408.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 796px) 100vw, 796px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-324402" class="wp-caption-text">Core Inflation: (Source: Trading Economics)</figcaption></figure>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://cryptoslate.com/insights/this-isnt-the-inflation-wave-to-be-worried-about-its-the-next-one/">This isn&#8217;t the inflation wave to be worried about – it&#8217;s the next one</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://cryptoslate.com">CryptoSlate</a>.</p>

This isn’t the inflation wave to be worried about – it’s the next one

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