With 2024 approaching, we summarized some of the top crypto predictions from a16z, Binance, Coinbase and more.
It’s late December 2023 and confidence in crypto markets is soaring after Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies staged an outstanding recovery this year. Investors are anticipating what is shaping up to be a huge year for Bitcoin and crypto, thanks to a plethora of positive catalysts in early 2024.
But what do the experts say about 2024? What are the biggest predictions and narratives?
We’ve gathered the sage insights from heavy hitters such as Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Bitwise, VanEck, Coinbase, and Binance below. This article summarizes some very lengthy reports, so we recommend you do some further reading to make sure you fully understand what they’re seeing in their crystal balls.
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Bitwise’s 10 Crypto Predictions for 2024
ETF applicant Bitwise sees a huge year for Bitcoin in 2024. Here are the top 10 predictions from the San Francisco-based crypto asset manager:
1. New all-time-highs (ATHs) for Bitcoin: Bitwise believes BTC could go above $80,000, spurred on by the halving and the historic launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which will finally make Bitcoin a mainstream investment option for everyone.
2. Bitcoin ETFs will be the most successful launches of all time: According to the firm’s internal research, ETFs could capture 1% of the $7.2 trillion U.S. ETF market, or $72 billion, within five years.
3. Coinbase could shock the market with its earnings: Bitwise believes the U.S. based exchange will beat Wall Street forecasts of revenue growth by at least a factor of 10.
4. Volume of transactions via stablecoins will surpass those by Visa: The firm predicts that stablecoins, one of crypto’s “killer apps,” will see an increased role in daily finances, even surpassing financial payments giant Visa.
5. J.P. Morgan will tokenize a fund and launch it on-chain: Wall Street will move to tokenize real-world assets, with $5.5 billion already tokenized on-chain and set to grow to $16 trillion by 2030.
6. Ethereum revenue will double to $5 billion: Bitwise predicts that revenue on Ethereum will double from $2.3 billion this year, making Ethereum one of the fastest growing tech platforms.
7. Taylor Swift will launch NFTs for fans: Pop culture and crypto are set to once again intertwine, with Taylor Swift possibly introducing NFTs for fan engagement.
8. AI assistants will use cryptocurrencies: The firm believes that crypto will cement its place as the native currency of the internet, as AI agents use it for online transactions.
9. Prediction markets are set to rise as a “killer app” in crypto: The firm predicts over $100 million will be staked, highlighting their potential as a breakthrough application for cryptocurrencies.
10. A major Ethereum update will significantly lower gas fees: This will bring average transaction fees down to under $0.01, making Ethereum more competitive and appealing than ever for users.
Read more of Bitwise’s crypto predictions for 2024 here.
VanEck’s 15 Predictions for 2024
Global investment fund and Bitcoin spot ETF applicant VanEck published 15 detailed predictions for 2024, which we’ve arranged by theme to make it more digestible.
Halving and ETF Fever Keep Bitcoin Dominant and Resilient During Possible US Recession
- The anticipated U.S. recession in 2024 aligns with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin is expected to remain resilient, maintaining a value likely above $30k in Q1 amidst the economic downturn.
- April 2024's 4th Bitcoin halving will go smoothly, reducing coin issuance and potentially boosting Bitcoin's price above $48k.
- By Q4 2024, Van Eck expects Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs, driven by the US election, the supply shock caused by the Halving and regulatory shifts that could make the crypto commodity as easy to own and account for as a regular stock.
Ethereum and the Rise of Layer 2 Networks
- Ethereum's strong performance in 2023 and upcoming milestones like EIP-4884’s Proto-danksharding will see it have a great year in 2024, but “The Flippening” won’t happen just yet and it’ll remain smaller in market cap than Bitcoin.
- Ethereum's Layer 2 Dominance: Post-EIP-4844, Ethereum’s Layer 2 networks like Polygon and Arbitrum are expected to lead in Total Value Locked (TVL) and transaction volume.
NFT Market Growth and Exchange Dynamics
- NFT Market Resurgence: The NFT market is poised for a significant rebound, driven by Ethereum collections, new crypto games, and Bitcoin-based NFTs.
- Centralized Exchanges and DEXs: Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) are set to gain more market share, propelled by high-throughput chains and wallet technology advancements.
New Opportunities in the Crypto Ecosystem
- Bitcoin yield opportunities: Innovations in blockchain-based remittances, especially through the Lightning Network, are expected to open up new Bitcoin yield opportunities.
- Blockchain gaming breakthrough: At least one blockchain game is predicted to surpass 1 million daily active users, indicating the sector's maturation.
- Solana's growth: Following up on a blistering Q4 2023, Solana is anticipated to become a top 3 blockchain by market cap and TVL, with its new price oracle, Pyth, potentially surpassing Chainlink.
- Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) protocols like Hivemapper and Helium are expected to experience significant growth, indicating a shift towards decentralized physical infrastructure.
Corporate Adoption and DeFi Integration
- Corporate crypto holdings go up: New accounting treatments such as FASB reporting are likely to encourage corporate crypto holdings, and Coinbase should benefit first by reporting its significant Layer 2 blockchain revenues in early 2024.
- DeFi and KYC Integration: Controversially, Know Your Customer (KYC) will come to DeFi, and its integration through platforms like Uniswap is expected to ultimately attract institutional liquidity and increase protocol fees.
Learn more about VanEck’s top 15 predictions for the crypto market here.
Binance’s Top Crypto Trends for 2024
Binance’s latest outlook report reflects a dynamic and evolving crypto ecosystem, with significant developments across Bitcoin, stablecoins, NFTs, protocol fees, Layer 1s, and SocialFi.
Bitcoin Developments
The Binance report emphasizes the growth and innovation in Bitcoin, marked by the Ordinals protocol introducing Bitcoin NFTs and memecoins, which is driving up network activity. It also points at U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, indicating increasing institutional interest and anticipation of the next Bitcoin halving in April 2024, expected to decrease block rewards and potentially increase Bitcoin's value.
Stablecoin Supply Increase
For the first time since early 2022, the supply of top stablecoins showed a positive quarterly net change, showing an influx of new money and investors to crypto markets.
NFT Market Revival
A notable uptick in NFT trading volumes, especially with Bitcoin NFTs surpassing Ethereum in trading volume is signaling a resurgence in the NFT market after a tough 2 years.
Rising Protocol Fees
Increased fees will be generated by top crypto projects, with Ethereum leading will prove that sustainable business models within the crypto sector are possible.
Layer 1 (L1) Dynamics
Ethereum maintains dominance, but other L1s like Solana and TonCoin are showing huge potential, creating a much needed more competitive landscape for smart contract blockchains.
Emergence of SocialFi
SocialFi, which blends DeFi and social media elements together, is gaining traction, with platforms like friend.tech, which has pulled in over $25 million in fees since its launch despite still being in beta, indicating the untapped potential for Web3 social apps.
Read the rest of Binance Research’s key crypto trends to watch in the upcoming year.
A16z's Crypto Trends
Venture capital firm a16z covers what crypto trends and developments they are excited about, as part of their 2024 Big Ideas in Tech.
New Era of Decentralization
Traditional web3 governance models using DAOs have limitations in addressing the sociopolitical realities of decentralized governance. However, lessons from the "living laboratory" of web3 have led to emerging best practices for decentralization. As these models evolve, a16z expects unprecedented levels of decentralized coordination, functionality and innovation.
The Rise of the Modular Tech Stack
Monolithic architectures offer deep integration and optimization but lack the advantages of a modular tech stack. An open-source, modular tech stack enables permissionless innovation, specialization, and competition. This modular approach is essential for fostering a vibrant and innovative ecosystem.
AI and Blockchain Become a Powerful Combination
Decentralized blockchains can counterbalance the centralization of AI. Crypto enables multi-sided, global, permissionless markets for AI compute and data, reducing costs and making AI more accessible.
Web3 is the laboratory for developing decentralized governance models for AI. Decentralized, open-source crypto networks will democratize AI innovation, making it safer for consumers.
Play to Earn Returns, This Time as Play and Earn
In "play to earn" (P2E) games, players can earn real-world money based on their time and effort. This trend is part of broader shifts in gaming and the creator economy. Web3 allows users to capture more of the value they produce in games, challenging the norm where all proceeds go to gaming companies.
However, games are not designed to be workplaces for most players. The industry is moving towards "play and earn" games that are both fun and allow players to earn. P2E is evolving beyond its initial growing pains and will eventually become an integral part of gaming.
Established Brands Use NFTs as Brand Assets
Established brands are increasingly using NFTs to engage consumers and build community. Starbucks, Nike, and Reddit have launched NFT initiatives that appeal to a broad audience. NFTs can be used to represent customer identity, bridge physical and digital goods, and co-create new products and experiences.
Inexpensive NFTs and Layer 2 blockchains are making NFTs more accessible for mass adoption. In 2024, a16z believes NFTs are poised to become ubiquitous as digital brand assets for a wide range of companies and communities.
Read more about other a16z’s crypto outlook and trends here.
Coinbase's Outlook for 2024
In its 2024 Crypto Market Outlook, listed U.S.-based crypto exchange Coinbase put forth some predictions and trends for 2024. Here are some of the key takeaways:
The Next Cycle
- Bitcoin Hegemony: Traditional investors and potential US spot bitcoin ETFs drive Bitcoin's dominance.
- A New Trading Regime: Developers focus on building web3 infrastructure for real-world use cases.
- The Layer-1 Equilibrium: Ethereum maintains dominance in smart contract platforms, while alternative layer-1s find niche sectors.
- The Evolution of Layer-2s: Layer-2 solutions grow, shifting activity from Ethereum mainnet and alt layer-1s, and adopting a modular approach.
- Validator Middleware and Customizability: Validator middleware developments, like restaking and distributed validator technology, offer enhanced customization and security.
Resetting the Macro Framework
- The Long Road to De-dollarization: Alternative payment solutions and cryptocurrencies are emerging as discussions continue about reducing USD reliance.
- The Economic Outlook for 2024: The US might avoid a recession, focusing on internal factors and the path of disinflation.
- Reading the Regulatory Tea Leaves: Digital asset allocations increase, showing the need for clearer US crypto regulations.
Connecting to the Real World
- Tokenization: Financial sectors expand tokenization to improve capital efficiency and automate workflows.
- Web3 Gaming: Web3 gaming revives interest, combining traditional gaming with blockchain technology.
- Decentralized Real-World Resources: Projects will focus on decentralized physical infrastructure (DePin) networks and decentralized computing for real-world applications.
- Decentralized Identity (DID): Advancements in privacy technologies, like zero-knowledge proofs, enhance decentralized identity solutions.
Future of Blockchain
- A Better User Experience: User experience improvements, including account abstraction and gasless transactions, make crypto more accessible.
- Validator Middleware and Customizability (Continued): Validator middleware continues to evolve, further enhancing blockchain network security and decentralization.
Read the full Coinbase 2024 Market Outlook report here.
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