Hyperliquid's HYPE slid below its price before the Oct. 29 ICE deal, as GLC Research put its HIP-3 stock and index markets at about 4% of 30-day revenue.
Key Facts
HYPE traded near $78.47 on Friday, below its $80.64 close before the Oct. 29 ICE deal and about 19% under that day's high, CoinMarketCap data show.
HIP-3 markets handled about 54% of Hyperliquid's perpetual futures volume over 24 hours, and GLC Research puts their share of 30-day revenue at 4.4%.
ICE's planned US market for Hyperliquid-based perpetuals still needs regulatory approval, and US HYPE funds lost a net $7.7 million this week through Thursday.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) has slipped below where it traded before Intercontinental Exchange agreed on Oct. 29 to bring Hyperliquid-based stock and commodity perpetuals to the US. The deal's markets sit in HIP-3, a segment that brought in about 4% of Hyperliquid's revenue over 30 days.
HYPE jumped as much as 20% that day after billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller said he had backed ICE's partner, Trade[XYZ]. Large holders sold into the rally, and Thursday's selloff in chip stocks pushed the token lower. GLC Research contributes to the Hyperliquid Research Collective. It says investors are paying for growth in markets that still earn little of the revenue behind HYPE buybacks.
The largest listed HYPE treasury company sees that value reaching the token.
"Hyperliquid is winning the parts of onchain finance that generate real fees, and nearly all of that value flows back to HYPE holders through programmatic buybacks," Hyperliquid Strategies CEO David Schamis said on Thursday.
What Did HYPE Give Back? Its Entire ICE Jump
ICE will run Trade[XYZ]'s planned US markets and is making a strategic investment in the firm, the companies announced.
"I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States," Druckenmiller wrote on X the same morning.
HYPE neared its Sept. 23 record that day. It traded at $78.47 at 12:27 p.m. ET on Friday, down 14% over seven days, CoinMarketCap data show. HYPE is still down less than Bitcoin (BTC) since the deal, about 3% against 7%.
Hyperliquid's price over the past month, including the Oct. 29 jump and the slide since. Source: CoinMarketCap
Who Sold Into the Rally? Whales and Fund Investors
Four whale wallets closed their HYPE positions within a day, taking about $5 million in profit, on-chain analytics firm Santiment wrote.
Fund buyers also stepped back. US spot HYPE ETFs lost a net $7.7 million this week through Thursday, CoinMarketCap's ETF tracker shows. HYPE then fell about 8.5% on Thursday as a Nasdaq selloff dragged down chip stocks and Bitcoin.
What Do Stock Markets Pay Holders? About 4% of Revenue
Trade[XYZ] runs its markets through HIP-3, which lets outside teams list their own futures contracts on Hyperliquid. Deployers stake HYPE for the right and keep a share of the trading fees. Perpetual futures never expire, and traders use them to bet on prices with leverage.
HIP-3 markets, mostly on stocks and indexes, handled about $8.2 billion in volume over 24 hours to 11:50 a.m. ET, against $6.9 billion for its crypto contracts, Hyperliquid's own data show. The desk reported the shift toward non-crypto bets in late October.
The revenue still comes mostly from crypto. Over 30 days, HIP-3 markets brought in 4.4% of Hyperliquid's revenue, less than priority fees, GLC Research wrote. Crypto perpetuals and interest on USDC reserves carry most of it.
What Would Revive HYPE? Stock Bets Showing Up in Revenue
The run of endorsements may mark a local mid-term top for HYPE, GSR head of strategic communications Frank Chaparro said on The Rollup. Little is left to come after news that big, he argued.
A subsidiary of Hyperliquid Strategies has applied to become a futures commission merchant, the company disclosed on Thursday. Such a broker would carry US customer accounts for those markets. ICE's market and clearing structure needs its own approval before brokers can join it.
Once those markets open, Hyperliquid's revenue split would show whether HYPE holders share in the growth.
"Some of that growth is priced in but what the market underestimates is how much perpetual derivatives can grow," GLC Research wrote on X.
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