Bitcoin fell to its 200-week average near $68,000 after six straight days of US ETF outflows, as Glassnode said US demand has gone quiet since September.
Key Facts
Bitcoin fell as low as $67,653 overnight, its lowest since Aug. 19, and traded below its 200-week moving average for the first time since August, CoinMarketCap data show.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $1.72 billion over six straight sessions through Thursday, and the Coinbase premium has been negative since September, Glassnode said.
Bitfinex says a weekly close above roughly $68,000 on Sunday keeps Bitcoin's long-term trend bullish by the 200-week measure.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to its 200-week moving average early Friday, after US spot Bitcoin funds posted outflows for a sixth straight session. A weekly close on Sunday above about $68,000 would keep the long-term trend intact by Bitfinex's measure.
The selling met little demand from US buyers. Leveraged bullish traders were forced out on the way down, and analysts disagree on whether the line holds.
Checkonchain's James Check described the sellers on Friday.
"Yesterday, over $680M worth of realised loss was locked in by investors who are selling in a panic," he wrote.
How Far Has Bitcoin Fallen? To Its 200-Week Average
Bitcoin traded at $68,488 at 10:28 a.m. ET on Friday, CoinMarketCap data show. It broke below $70,000 late Thursday in New York and hit its low a few hours later, before recovering part of the drop.
Bitcoin's price over the past month, including Friday's drop to its 200-week average. Source: CoinMarketCap
The long-term average smooths out weekly closes over roughly a full market cycle, and traders treat it as the dividing line for the long-term trend.
The line gave way briefly this summer. Bitcoin closed a week below it three times between late June and mid-August, and won it back within two weeks each time, by the desk's count of CoinMarketCap data. The desk reported the break of the shorter 200-day average on Thursday.
Who Is Selling? ETF Holders and Leveraged Longs
Fund investors are still pulling money. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $284 million on Thursday, extending the run of outflows to six sessions, Farside Investors data show.
Forced selling did the rest. About $1.06 billion in long positions were liquidated across crypto markets over the past day, most of it overnight, CoinGlass data show.
A liquidation closes a leveraged bet automatically once the trader's collateral runs out, which adds another sale to a falling market.
Higher rates add to the pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.1% since Tuesday's inflation data, Yahoo Finance data show.
Where Are US Buyers? Quiet Since September, Glassnode Says
The demand gap shows up in the Coinbase premium, the price difference between Coinbase and offshore exchanges. Heavy US buying pushes it positive.
Glassnode found the premium negative throughout the slide from the September high. The big rallies of recent years all ran with a premium, and some started from discounts as deep as this one, the firm noted.
Smaller buyers have also pulled back. Retail demand is shrinking by nearly 10% a month, CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost wrote on X, though he reads that retreat as a contrarian buying signal.
What Decides the Trend? Sunday's Weekly Close Near $68,000
Bitfinex analysts set the test for the weekend.
A rebound would meet sellers higher up. Recent buyers paid about $75,400 on average, and many could sell into bounces, Bitfinex analysts wrote.
A weekly close below about $68,000 would be the fourth since June.
K33's head of research reads the drop as an entry point rather than a reason to sell.
"This is a great place to buy BTC… Do not press the red panic button," Vetle Lunde wrote.
Further Reading: Bitcoin Price Falls Below 200-Day Average to Lowest Since August
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