Bitcoin closed a week below its 50-week moving average for the first time since September, starting a month-long test Galaxy Research set for its call.
Key Facts
Bitcoin closed Sunday at $74,585, below its 50-week moving average near $75,485, for its fifth straight lower weekly close, CoinMarketCap data show.
Galaxy's Alex Thorn says his bullish case holds if Bitcoin regains the line within a month, and two earlier breaks after a bear-market bottom brought no new low.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion last week, and IG warns two daily closes below the 200-day average near $73,150 would likely bring more selling.
Bitcoin (BTC) closed a week below its 50-week moving average for the first time since September, the line Galaxy Research uses to mark the end of the bear market. Galaxy's own test gives it about a month to win the line back.
Sunday's close extended a run of weekly declines that began in early October, after a week of fund selling and a late slide into the weekend. Galaxy head of firmwide research Alex Thorn says his case for a bottom survives a dip below the line if Bitcoin regains it within a month. In the two closest precedents, the bear-market low held.
"[T]he technical portion of the case still holds if we go below 50w so long as it is reclaimed within a month," Thorn wrote on X.
Why Did Bitcoin Close Lower? Sunday's Slide and Fund Selling
Bitcoin slid to a low of $73,692 in the hours before Sunday's close, as US stock futures opened for the week, CoinMarketCap data show.
Bitcoin's price over the past month, including the slide below $75,000 into Sunday's weekly close. Source: CoinMarketCap
Forced selling added to the drop, as more than $1 billion in long positions were liquidated across crypto over 24 hours, CoinGlass data show. Ethereum's losses were larger than Bitcoin's.
Fund buyers had been leaving all week. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a net $1.28 billion in the week to Friday, almost all of it from BlackRock's IBIT, Farside data show.
The selling has outlasted a rebound in stocks. Nasdaq futures rose on Monday morning while Bitcoin traded lower, as it lagged on Friday.
What Is the 50-Week Line? Galaxy's Bear-Market Marker
The 50-week average tracks roughly a year of weekly closes. Galaxy treats it as the ceiling in a bear market and the 200-week average as the floor, the desk reported last month.
Bitcoin closed back above the line on Sept. 20 and held it through October. Sunday's close left it just below.
Large traders are betting the other way. Hyperliquid whales hold their biggest net short in Bitcoin since October 2025, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode wrote on X.
What Happened Last Time? Two Breaks, No New Lows
Thorn found two earlier cases, in early 2012 and late 2019, where Bitcoin closed below the line after regaining it from a bear-market bottom.
"neither of those times did the bear make a new lower low (weekly close data)," Thorn wrote.
He called the sample small, since five reclaims make up the whole record and a bottom is only known in hindsight. For this cycle, that means the June low he puts near $59,500 has to hold.
Recent buyers sit higher. Those who bought over the past few months paid about $79,300 on average, which may make that area harder to break, CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu wrote.
What Would Confirm a Recovery? A Close Above $75.5K
Bitcoin traded at $74,533 at 9:26 a.m. ET on Monday, CoinMarketCap data show. October inflation data arrives Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Galaxy's month runs to early December, and a weekly close back above about $75,500 before then would put Thorn's call back on track. On the way down, IG chief technical analyst Axel Rudolph puts support at the 200-day average near $73,150.
"Two consecutive daily chart closes below it would likely provoke another bout of selling," Rudolph wrote.
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