US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $424 million in three sessions as BTC rose back near $81,800, while trading in BlackRock's IBIT, the largest fund, fell each day.
Key Facts
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $424 million from Oct. 26 to Oct. 28, recovering more than half of the $774 million that left the funds on Oct. 22 and 23.
The inflows coincided with Bitcoin's return to about $81,800, close to the $81,500 that Glassnode estimates the average ETF holder paid.
BlackRock's IBIT drew 94% of the money, but its trading volume fell each day, to about $940 million on Oct. 28, roughly half its average since May.
US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs took in $424 million from Monday through Wednesday, winning back more than half of what left them on Oct. 22 and 23. Trading in BlackRock's IBIT, which drew almost all of the new money, shrank on each of those days.
Bitcoin is back near what the average fund holder paid, by research firm Glassnode's estimate. IBIT's dollar volume on Wednesday was about half its daily average since May, based on Nasdaq trading data. That falls short of the condition Glassnode sets for a real return of demand. Daily closes above $85,000 would be the first step toward a recovery, the firm added.
The firm set out that condition in its weekly report.
“Should inflows return on rising volume, it would show that demand is coming back,” Glassnode analyst Frederik Theissen wrote.
What Came Back? $424 Million Over Three Sessions
Bitcoin climbed close to $85,000 on Oct. 21 after a run of ETF inflows. It then turned lower at a band where it has stalled repeatedly this year, by Glassnode's count.
The funds lost about $636 million the next day, Farside Investors data show. K33 Research counted it as the largest daily outflow from Bitcoin funds since June 26.
Middle East headlines and late-week fund outflows forced traders using leverage out of their bets, QCP Capital wrote on Monday.
Bitcoin fell to its lowest price of the month over the weekend, and the money began to return on Monday.
Why Does Volume Matter? Glassnode's Test for Real Demand
Net inflows reflect new shares issued minus shares redeemed, backed by Bitcoin bought with cash or delivered directly to the fund. Trading volume counts shares changing hands between investors, whether or not any new shares are created.
The trading in IBIT has been thinning. Its dollar volume fell on each day of the inflow streak, Nasdaq data show.
The slowdown is broader than one week. Volume across the funds has stayed low since May, and the funds are adding little demand at current prices, Glassnode said.
CME's December Bitcoin futures settled on Wednesday about 5% a year above the expiring October contract, which tracks the spot price, CME data show. Three-month Treasury bills yielded 4.18%, Treasury figures show.
Hedge funds can buy ETF shares and sell futures against them to earn that premium, an arbitrage known as the basis trade. With bills paying nearly as much, the trade offers little extra.
Where Is Bitcoin Now? Right at the ETF Cost Basis
Bitcoin traded near $81,800 on Thursday, CoinMarketCap data show. Glassnode puts the average ETF holder's cost at $81,500. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart estimates it slightly higher.
Bitcoin has traded around that level since late August, Seyffart wrote.
“The medium-term picture still looks solid given the weekly close above $80,000,” K33 head of research Vetle Lunde wrote on Monday.
The supply overhead is still large. Long-term holders own a heavy block of coins bought above $85,000, Glassnode estimates, and many may sell to get their money back as price nears that level.
What Would Confirm It? Daily Closes Above $85,000
A run of daily closes above $85,000 would turn the band back into support, Glassnode said. On the downside, a daily close below $77,900, the average price paid by active investors, would leave $75,800 as the next support, the firm said.
Another $350 million of inflows would offset the remaining Oct. 22–23 withdrawals.
“I expect bullish momentum to return once midterm uncertainty fades and ETF inflows resume,” CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju wrote on Wednesday.
Further Reading: 5 Ways To Earn Yield on Tokenized Stocks in DeFi
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