The bear market effectively began around mid-November following the largest liquidation event in crypto history on Oct. 10, according to Moreno.
Bitcoin News
Bitcoin has entered a bear market cycle as demand growth slowed significantly since October 2025, according to analysts at crypto market analysis platform CryptoQuant. The analytics firm cited multiple factors, including ETF outflows, contracting institutional demand, declining funding rates, and price falling below key technical support levels, as evidence of the cyclical shift.
CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno indicated Bitcoin could reach $70,000 within three to six months, with a deeper decline to $56,000 possible in the second half of 2026 if the downtrend continues. The bear market effectively began around mid-November following the largest liquidation event in crypto history on Oct. 10, according to Moreno.
Investor demand for Bitcoin came in three waves during the current market cycle, with the first following the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. in January 2024. The second wave followed the 2024 U.S. presidential election results, and the third was driven by a Bitcoin treasury company bubble, according to CryptoQuant's analysis.
Demand growth has fallen below trend since early October 2025, indicating that most of this cycle's incremental demand has already been realized and removing a key pillar of price support. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs turned into net sellers in the fourth quarter of 2025, with combined holdings declining by roughly 24,000 Bitcoin or around $2.12 billion, marking a sharp reversal from the same period in 2024 when ETFs were strong net buyers.
Addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoin, a cohort that includes ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies, are growing below trend. CryptoQuant stated this weakening mirrors demand deterioration seen toward the end of 2021 ahead of the 2022 bear market, with this group representing most of Bitcoin's demand growth during the current cycle.
Funding rates, the fees paid by perpetual futures traders to maintain their positions, have declined to their lowest levels since December 2023 on a 365-day moving average basis. Historically, falling funding rates reflect reduced willingness to maintain long exposure, a pattern consistently observed during bear market regimes rather than bull phases, according to CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin also slipped below its 365-day moving average of approximately $98,172, a long-term technical threshold that has historically marked the boundary between bull and bear market conditions. The firm described this level as a critical and dynamic support level for any asset.
CryptoQuant pointed to Bitcoin's realized price, currently near $56,000, as a historical reference point for bear market bottoms. A decline to that level would represent a 55% drawdown from the recent all-time high, which would be the smallest drawdown on record, with intermediate price support expected around the $70,000 level.
The firm emphasized that demand cycles, not halvings, drive Bitcoin's four-year cycle. The current downturn reinforces that Bitcoin's cyclical behavior is governed primarily by expansions and contractions in demand growth, not by the halving event itself or past price performance, with bear markets tending to follow when demand growth peaks and rolls over regardless of supply-side dynamics.
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