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Bitcoin has three months to go until the bull market resumes — but it can still see 300% gains by 2026.
Those are some of the conclusions of <a href="https://x.com/apsk32/status/1810496725851017336" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">fresh BTC price analysis</a> from the pseudonymous engineer known as Apsk32.
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="btc-price-acceleration-not-due-for-at-least-three-months">BTC price “acceleration” not due for at least three months</h2>
In a post on X on July 9, Apsk32 returned to his power law metric to chart the likely future performance of the Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) market.
The power law essentially provides a lower BTC price support band, which has held since BTC/USD traded at just $1. Several other bands, or “time contours,” provide additional price information, ultimately giving a $1 million price target for 2036.
“Time contours tell us how long it will be before the support forces current prices upward. For 12 years, every bear market has returned to this support line,” part of a previous X <a href="https://x.com/apsk32/status/1804669080768598231" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">post</a> from June explains.
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “The support passes one million dollars in 2036 and bitcoin isn’t stopping there.”
</blockquote>
Relaying past price action onto the current four-year cycle, as defined by Apsk32, is helping to explain current market behavior, including the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-traders-bottom-is-in-btc-price-bounces">ongoing 25% drop</a> from March’s $73,800 all-time highs.
“If bitcoin’s cycle pattern continues, price should remain inside or near this blue cloud,” the latest post summarized. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “The ETFs pushed us out of the cloud and now we're reverting back. We're 3+ months away from upwards acceleration and we could see prices go up 4x by the end of 2025.”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/e94e49bb-ae78-4f2b-ae34-e42b66ef235d.jpeg" alt="Bitcoin ‘Power Law’ sees up to 300% BTC price gains by late 2025" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin power law fractal cloud. Source: Apsk32
 </figcaption>
</figure>
An accompanying chart shows the so-called “Power Law Fractal Cloud” — a guideline range for BTC/USD going forward.
“Does the price have to stay within the cloud? Absolutely not,” Apsk32 acknowledged. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “This time could be different, in fact it already is.”
</blockquote>
<h2 data-ct-non-breakable="true" id="bitcoin-moving-from-weak-to-strong-hands">Bitcoin “moving from weak to strong hands”</h2>
As Cointelegraph <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-56k-us-stocks-fresh-all-time-highs">continues to report</a>, Bitcoin traders are poised for further BTC price downside as a feeling of fear takes over across crypto.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-risks-double-top-5-things-bitcoin-this-week">BTC price risks ‘double top’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week</a>
<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/watch-these-bitcoin-price-levels-52k-supertrend">Sub-$50,000 levels</a> have returned to the radar, again bringing the current drawdown in line with those past.
Sources of optimism meanwhile include <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-miner-sell-pressure-weakening-btc-withdrawals"></a><a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-miner-sell-pressure-weakening-btc-withdrawals">reduced selling by Bitcoin miners</a> over the past month, along with a return to net inflows for the United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/4b4a1859-c0aa-4e87-906a-bb528ad3ab81.png" alt="Bitcoin ‘Power Law’ sees up to 300% BTC price gains by late 2025" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: Filbfilb
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The latter saw <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etf-investors-buy-the-dip-daily-inflows-hit-295-million">inflows of nearly $300 million</a> on July 8, marking their best single-day tally in over a month, per data from sources including United Kingdom-based investment firm <a href="https://farside.co.uk/?p=997" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">Farside Investors</a>.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/c1a03673-8fe6-4e18-b280-14e71a9a9a88.png" alt="Bitcoin ‘Power Law’ sees up to 300% BTC price gains by late 2025" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 US-based spot Bitcoin ETF net flows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
 </figcaption>
</figure>
“Looks like the boomers &amp; institutions are buying the dip here, while Germany offloads a bunch of coins,” popular trader Jelle wrote in part of a <a href="https://x.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1810586548242366871" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">response</a>, contrasting ETF buying with <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/german-govt-shifts-3k-btc-one-hour">BTC sales by the German government</a>. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “Coins moving from weak, to strong hands.”
</blockquote>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin ‘Power Law’ sees up to 300% BTC price gains by late 2025

Obsah

Cointelegraph

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