Bitcoin

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Note

Bitcoin’s price is seeking to recover from its June losses, but onchain data suggests that it may run into resistance around the $65,000 level.
Data from <a href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*7499wx*_ga*MTQ0MzQ0NzI4Ny4xNzE2MzY1NTA0*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTcxNjM2NTUwNC4xLjEuMTcxNjM2Njg2MC4wLjAuMA..">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/?exchange=BINANCE" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">TradingView</a> showed Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>)&nbsp;trading at $62,288, down 0.5% over the last 24 hours and 8.6% over the last 30 days. This follows an extended downtrend in June that reversed all the gains made in May. 
According to Coinglass data, when Bitcoin has had a negative June, it tends to bounce back strongly in July. In fact, BTC has shown an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% in July.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/061de4e9-e6e7-4a0e-a8f8-f37c02074602.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: Coinglass
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However, technical and onchain data reveals that any attempts at recovery this month may be curtailed by sell-side pressure from the $65,000 level. A look at the daily chart shows that Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance in its recovery path.
This is the zone between $61,817 and $56,914, embraced by the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA, respectively.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/504b9f6a-1255-406a-9a22-dfb51d262417.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
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“In the short-term, we should expect some resistance around the ~$65,000 level as short-term market speculators may look to exit their positions at a ‘breakeven’ level,” analysts at Blockware Intelligence <a href="https://newsletter.blockwareintelligence.com/p/blockware-intelligence-newsletter-e4e" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">declared</a> in the latest edition of the newsletter.
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 “Last summer, when BTC lost the STH [short-term holder] RP support level, price traded sideways for another two months before finally breaking out again.”
</blockquote>
Note that the June drawdown <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-drop-below-traders-cost-basis-warns-of-deeper-sell-off">pushed Bitcoin’s spot price</a> well below the widely tracked STH cost basis, raising concerns over deeper corrections
According to data from LookIntoBitcoin, the cost basis for short-term holders was $64,513 as of June 28, compared to the spot price, which was hovering around $60,317.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/d6443bdb-dc8f-4e20-93b4-3fea37b9103c.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin short-term holder realized price. Source: LookIntoBitcoin
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Realized price or aggregate cost basis refers to the average price at which coins were last spent onchain.
This means that short-term holders now face losses and could attempt to exit the market at a loss or breakeven, potentially adding to selling pressure near the $65,000 mark.
In an analysis on X, independent analyst Ali Martinez <a href="https://x.com/ali_charts/status/1808092251760849400" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">corroborated</a> this outlook, saying that based on the market-value-to-realized-value metric, BTC price could run into resistance above $65,000.&nbsp;
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/6a988e92-aabb-4094-bb2b-b32a2978ecab.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a href="https://x.com/ali_charts/status/1808092251760849400" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">Ali Martinez</a>
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According to Martinez, a breach of this level could potentially open the path for Bitcoin’s rally toward $78,700.
Interestingly, the Bitcoin one-month liquidation heatmap by Coinglass shows sell-bids amounting to $1.23 billion building up at $64,940.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-63k-liquidity-sparks-hopes-40-btc-price-gains">Bitcoin circles $63K as liquidity sparks hopes of 40% BTC price gains</a>
Meanwhile, Thomas Fahrer, founder of crypto company Apollo, is more optimistic about Bitcoin’s ability to rise above $65,000. 
“$940M of #Bitcoin shorts will be liquidated at 65K,” he <a href="https://x.com/thomas_fahrer/status/1808059739995361670" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">declared</a> in a July 2 post on X.
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 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/5831dbe3-a04c-4434-aca0-9977ed1c9b80.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin liquidation chart. Source: <a href="https://x.com/thomas_fahrer/status/1808059739995361670" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">Thomas Fahrer</a>
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“The first rule of Bitcoin is don’t short Bitcoin,” he added in a follow-up post. “The flows will come, and shorts will be punished.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin traders say BTC’s trend change potential rests at $65K

Cointelegraph

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