Bitcoin

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Bitcoin&nbsp;traders face bear market-style losses as a new report warns that a return to the upside could take months.
In its latest Weekly Report shared with Cointelegraph on July 10, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>)&nbsp;market conditions are echoing late 2022.
<h2 id="btc-profits-echo-the-post-ftx-climate">BTC profits echo the post-FTX climate</h2>
Bitcoin faces multiple hurdles in returning to its bull market, and traders and miners are feeling the strain.
CryptoQuant revealed that more recent large-volume investors, known as whales, have distributed coins worth $1 billion in July alone.
“The fact that new and large investors are now realizing losses could be an early sign of Bitcoin price bottom. Previously, in February-March, this investor cohort had realized strong profits as prices peaked above $70K,” it commented.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/398cce5b-e730-460f-bb6b-790e5d0572e2.png" alt="Bitcoin traders’ profit margins repeat 2022 bear market — New research" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin whales’ realized profits (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
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In further contrast to the golden days of the bull run just months ago, traders are sitting on unrealized losses of 17% — the most since the pit of the last Bitcoin bear market in December 2022.
“In this same tone, Bitcoin traders are now operating with negative margins, and would only realize losses if they continue to sell. Trader’s unrealized margins are now -17%, the most negative since shortly after the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022,” the report continued. 
<blockquote data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 “Prices have typically bottomed-out when trader’s margins touch extremely negative levels as seen currently (red circles).”
</blockquote>
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/157082e3-8b91-41b7-b2fa-96c210160141.png" alt="Bitcoin traders’ profit margins repeat 2022 bear market — New research" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin trader realized price vs. profit/loss margin (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
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An accompanying chart compared traders’ current realized price — their aggregate cost basis — to unrealized profit margins.
<h2 id="bitcoin-miners-keep-up-sales">Bitcoin miners keep up sales</h2>
CryptoQuant additionally noted that miners remain in a “capitulation” phase, with operators likewise <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-hash-ribbons-first-buy-signal-25k-btc-price">struggling to break even</a> following April’s block subsidy halving.
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-risks-double-top-5-things-bitcoin-this-week">BTC price risks ‘double top’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week</a>
As <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-miner-profits-squeeze-hash-price-drops-lowest-since-october-2023">Cointelegraph reported</a>, smaller miners, in particular, have been seen to quit the network amid a low hash price, taking hashrate lower.
“Large-size miners have sold about $300M since June 20, while mid-size miners have unloaded around $500M on a cost-basis,” the report now confirms.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/30807eaa-a3ed-4cd0-9740-9d14a88ead0b.png" alt="Bitcoin traders’ profit margins repeat 2022 bear market — New research" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin realized cap (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
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In a&nbsp;July 9&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1810713273995555259" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">post</a>&nbsp;on X, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju calculated that crypto markets could be “boring for the next 2-3 months.”
“Stay long-term bullish but avoid excessive risk,” he suggested.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin traders’ profit margins repeat 2022 bear market — New research

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Cointelegraph

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