Donald Trump

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President Donald Trump

Presidential Debate

Decentralized predictions platform Polymarket hit $100 million in monthly trading volume in June as punters upped their stakes on how they think the United States presidential election will play out.
At the time of writing, there is $203.3 million worth of bets in “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” which consists of individual “Yes” or “No” bets across 17 prediction markets. 
Former President Donald Trump is currently the favorite, with 62% odds that he will win the U.S. election, with a total of $24.7 million in bets for and against him. 
Incumbent President Joe Biden is second with $23.9 million in bets on whether he will secure another term. Those odds, however, have fallen from 34% to 21% since his <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/biden-trump-debate-didnt-mention-crypto">lackluster performance in the first&nbsp;presidential debate</a><a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/biden-trump-debate-didnt-mention-crypto"></a>&nbsp;on June 28.
Meanwhile, odds for Democrats Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama spiked as some political commentators questioned whether Biden should drop out of the presidential race. 
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/714260f0-f37d-48e7-9660-e41027b35abb.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Polymarket’s presidential election market. Source: Polymarket
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Other betting markets related to the elections have also garnered millions in bets.
Biden’s recent debate performance has also led to a spike in “Yes” bets on “Biden drops out of presidential race” and “Biden drops out by July 4” markets, which are now at 43% and 9%, respectively. Over $10 million in <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/explained/prediction-markets-explained">bets have been placed</a> in those markets.
Millions of dollars have also been bet on whether American rapper Kanye West and crypto skeptic Elizabeth Warren could win the presidency, but those markets show a less than 1% chance at this stage. 
Polymarket, which runs on Ethereum sidechain Polygon, saw $109.9 million in trading volume in June — its first time crossing the $100 million mark, <a href="https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">according</a> to a Dune Analytics dashboard.
Trading volumes between January and May hovered between $38.9 million and $63 million, which marked a 620% increase from the previous five months of August to December 2023.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/ea4357f2-a5cb-4b34-86f5-11b9184bb383.png" alt="" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Polymarket’s change in monthly trading volume since September 2020: Source: Dune Analytics
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The number of monthly active traders also skyrocketed 115% to 29,266 in June. 
Related: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-spikes-trump-widens-gap-against-biden-presidential-debate">Bitcoin spikes as betting markets favor Trump during debate with Biden</a>
The <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-predictions-platform-polymarket-fined-1-4m-by-ctfc">total value locked in Polymarket</a> is now $40.2 million, up nearly 69% over the last 30 days, Token Terminal data <a href="https://tokenterminal.com/terminal/projects/polymarket" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">shows</a>.
Cryptocurrency prices and the UEFA European Football Championship 2024 markets have also tallied large trading volumes on Polymarket.
Polymarket&nbsp;<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-role-of-blockchain-in-modern-prediction-markets-interview-with-azuro">launched in June 2020</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;recently <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/founders-fund-invests-70m-polymarket-election-betting">raised $70 million</a>,&nbsp;which was spearheaded by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund.
Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, said decentralized prediction markets are a way to cut through misleading narratives and view the unvarnished truth.
“Prediction markets are freedom preserving technology that move societies forward,” Cohler <a href="https://x.com/yugacohler/status/1807424956529344989" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow">said</a> in a June 30 X post.
Magazine: <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-layer2-sidechains-not-really-bitcoin-l2s/">‘Bitcoin Layer 2s’ aren’t really L2s at all: Here’s why that matters</a>

Polymarket monthly volume hits $100M as presidential race heats up

Cointelegraph

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