2024

Jerome Powell

Bitcoin

Don Jr.

<h2 id="key-points">Key Points</h2> 
<ul> 
 <li>Historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s price could be bearish in September.</li> 
 <li>However, 2024 might be different due to various factors.</li> 
</ul> 
<p>According to historical data, September has mostly been pessimistic for Bitcoin’s price.</p> 
<p>Since 2013, previous numbers show a bearish price movement for the most important digital asset, with a few exceptions.</p> 
<h2 id="historical-data-september-the-worst-month-for-bitcoin">Historical Data – September, the Worst Month for Bitcoin</h2> 
<p>History has shown that this is the worst-performing month for Bitcoin. If in 2023, BTC saw price drops of a little under 2%, 2014 was the worst year as BTC recorded its most significant price drop in September of over 19%.</p> 
<p>However, 2015, 2016, and 2023 data show that Bitcoin’s price was able to see surges in September as well, of 2%, 6%, and almost 4% respectively.</p> 
<figure style="width: 100%" class="wp-caption alignnone">
 <a href="https://x.com/Kingpincrypto12/status/1830547474047770746/photo/1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWdpOFibsAAARBK?format=png&amp;name=large" alt="BTC historical price moves " width="1296" height="647" title="10 Years Of Seasonality Suggest Bearish Bitcoin Price Action in September - Can 2024 Be Different? 22"></a>
 <figcaption class="wp-caption-text">
  BTC historical price moves
 </figcaption>
</figure> 
<p>As revealed by the historical price moves of Bitcoin, from 2013 until 2023, September was bearish for BTC, apart from the three exceptions mentioned above.</p> 
<p>Even if, overall, BTC’s seasonality shows that this month has been the worst for the digital asset, history might not necessarily repeat itself.</p> 
<h2 id="potential-factors-affecting-bitcoin-s-2024-september-price-moves">Potential Factors Affecting Bitcoin’s 2024 September Price Moves</h2> 
<p>Despite Bitcoin’s seasonality, 2024 could see changes in its price trajectory due to multiple factors.</p> 
<h3 id="1-politics-us-2024-elections">1. Politics – US 2024 Elections</h3> 
<p>On September 10, the US will witness the main Presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, as <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/27/politics/abc-debate-rules-muted-microphones/index.html" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">CNN</a> reports.</p> 
<p>As 2024 is an election year, this is extremely important since Bitcoin and crypto have already become a vital subject debated by political parties.</p> 
<p>Without a doubt, the former US President, Donald Trump, has shown that he is a strong supporter of the crypto industry.</p> 
<p>Throughout 2024, Trump has made it very clear that his efforts target making the US, the <a href="https://crypto.ro/en/news/trump-will-reveal-plan-to-make-us-the-crypto-capital-of-the-planet-today/">crypto capital</a> of the planet, highlighting on various occasions that the country should stop selling its BTC reserves.</p> 
<p>He also revealed World Liberty Financial, the Telegram group run by Trump’s sons, Eric and Don Jr. The group is a rebranding of “The DeFiant Ones,” a reference to the crypto-based concept of decentralized finance (DeFi).</p> 
<h3 id="2-important-macro-data-and-potential-us-rate-cuts">2. Important Macro Data and Potential US Rate Cuts</h3> 
<p>Also, this month, the US is set to receive important economic data that has usually affected Bitcoin’s price, according to the latest historical info.</p> 
<p>The US CPI and PPI data is set to be released this month, along with the important FOMC meeting that will take place on September 18. As noted by <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/08/27/markets-firmly-expect-the-fed-to-cut-rates-on-september-18/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Forbes</a>, fixed-income markets expect the Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates during the meeting.</p> 
<p>So far, there are a lot of hints at a potential rate cut this month, as stated by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself.</p> 
<p>During the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium speech, Powell said that the time has come for policy to adjust.</p> 
<p>According to him, the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.</p> 
<h3 id="3-binance-s-changpeng-zhao-s-release">3. Binance’s Changpeng Zhao’s Release</h3> 
<p>This month, the crypto industry will see another important event – Binance’s Changpeng Zhao’s release from prison.</p> 
<p>Last month, the founder of Binance became the subject of <a href="https://crypto.ro/en/news/crypto-community-mistakenly-celebrates-early-release-of-binance-founder-changpeng-zhao/">premature celebrations</a> on X, as users mistakenly believed that he had been released from prison.</p> 
<p>In reality, he is still under US government custody and he’s scheduled to be officially released on September 29, according to official data from the US Bureau of Prisons.</p> 
<h3 id="4-us-bitcoin-etfs-and-institutional-adoption">4. US Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Adoption</h3> 
<p>2024 is the year that saw the launch of innovative crypto products in the US – the Bitcoin ETFs. 11 BTC ETFs were launched in the country on January 11, and they have been facilitating increased institutional investment in Bitcoin ever since.</p> 
<p>This year, Bitcoin and crypto have witnessed enhanced <a href="https://crypto.ro/en/news/goldman-sachs-discloses-418m-in-bitcoin-etfs/">institutional adoption</a> as important names including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, pension investment funds and other financial entities have disclosed their positions in Bitcoin ETFs.</p> 
<p>Bitcoin ETFs have been important tools triggering accelerated crypto adoption this year.</p> 
<p>All these factors mentioned above, along with other<a href="https://crypto.ro/en/education/bitcoin-runes-protocol/"> developments</a> in the Bitcoin ecosystem, favor 2024’s September as a potential exception to historical Bitcoin seasonality that showed bearish price movements for the month.</p>

10 Years Of Seasonality Suggest Bearish Bitcoin Price Action in September – Can 2024 Be Different?

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