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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price" rel="" target="_self" text="null">BTC</a>) had a good start to 2024, rising over 40% year-to-date. This was fueled by a number of positive fundamental factors, including the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States and the halving event, which reduced the amount of BTC awarded to miners by 50%.&nbsp;
Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin price <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-new-73-6-k-all-time-high-etfs-eat" rel="" target="_self" text="null">hit new all-time highs</a> before the halving, leading many analysts to <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-moon-top-5-btc-price-predictions-2024-beyond#:~:text=Yes%2C%20it's%20going%20to%20reach,price%20is%20around%20%24250K.%E2%80%9D" rel="" target="_self" text="null">predict a supercycle</a> within the current halving year.
More than 123 days have passed since the <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/bitcoin-halving-how-does-the-halving-cycle-work-and-why-does-it-matter" rel="null" target="null" text="null">Bitcoin halving</a>, and BTC’s price is yet to surpass its pre-halving all-time high. Bitcoin is down 13% over the last month and 14% over the last 30 days. This has left market analysts debating whether Bitcoin will launch a rally during the fourth quarter of 2024.
Veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1826227273684726124" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null">said</a> that the current market cycle could soon be the longest in post-halving history, adding that it could either indicate that a new all-time high will take longer to come or it’s “not in the cards.”
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin ‘parabolic’ rally may start in Q4, according to historical price data" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/Screenshot%202024-08-21%20at%2017.41.32">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1826227273684726124" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null">Peter Brandt</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Data from CoinGlass reveals that Bitcoin has always had positive returns in Q4 during halving years, posting 58% and 168% gains in 2016 and 2020, respectively. Moreover, BTC’s price has posted positive returns in eight out of the 11 years between 2013 and 2023, with average gains of 88%.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin ‘parabolic’ rally may start in Q4, according to historical price data" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/Screenshot%202024-08-21%20at%2017.52.20">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin quarterly returns (%). Source: CoinGlass
 </figcaption>
</figure>
If history is any guide, there is a 73% chance that Bitcoin will rally in the fourth quarter of 2024.&nbsp;
CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1826238648536510867" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null">analyzed</a> Bitcoin’s price action during the 2020 halving and found that the rally began in Q4.
<blockquote>
 “In the last Bitcoin halving cycle, the bull rally began in Q4. Whales won’t let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance.”
</blockquote>
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin ‘parabolic’ rally may start in Q4, according to historical price data" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/Screenshot%202024-08-21%20at%2018.10.33">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin: Cumulative return index on halving years (start of year = 1). Source: CryptoQuant
 </figcaption>
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According to Ju, Bitcoin’s price is in an accumulation phase, suggesting that it could possibly initiate a parabolic uptrend once it enters the last quarter of 2024.
<h2 id="strong-the-200-day-ema-poses-stiff-resistance-for-bitcoin-s-price-strong">The 200-day EMA poses stiff resistance for Bitcoin’s price</h2>
Data from <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://subscription.cointelegraph.com/?_gl=1*1uxk0v7*_ga*MTAxMzE3MDgyMS4xNzA2Nzk5MzMw*_ga_53R24TEEB1*MTcxODg5NDgyOS41NDkuMS4xNzE4ODk1MzMzLjAuMC4w" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null">Cointelegraph Markets Pro</a> and <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.tradingview.com/x/RnxS6MjF/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null">TradingView</a> shows Bitcoin’s price action has formed a series of higher lows on the daily chart but has remained below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) over the last seven days.&nbsp;
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin ‘parabolic’ rally may start in Q4, according to historical price data" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/btrcusd%20daily%20chart%20-%20Aug%2021">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
The In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model by IntoTheBlock reveals that <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/learn/what-is-bitcoin-a-beginners-guide-to-the-worlds-first-cryptocurrency" rel="" target="_self" text="null">Bitcoin</a> faces relatively stiff resistance in its recovery path, compared to the support it enjoys on the downside.
The 200-day EMA at $59,423 is found close to the $59,500–$61,300 price range, where approximately 817,770 BTC was previously bought by about 1.51 million addresses.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin ‘parabolic’ rally may start in Q4, according to historical price data" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/Screenshot%202024-08-21%20at%2018.22.46">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin IOMAP chart. Source: IntoTheBlock
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This suggests that high demand-side liquidity is required to push BTC’s price past the 200-day EMA and later above resistance provided by the 50- and 100-day EMAs at $61,383 and $62,323, respectively, breaking it out of the current consolidation.
If this doesn’t happen, analyst Mark Cullen <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/mark_cullen/status/1826106770483249304" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null">said</a> Bitcoin’s price could drop toward $57,500 or even lower to revisit the $54,500 level.
<figure>
 <img alt="Bitcoin ‘parabolic’ rally may start in Q4, according to historical price data" name="" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-08/Screenshot%202024-08-21%20at%2018.49.52">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Source: <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/mark_cullen/status/1826106770483249304" rel="null" target="null" text="null">Mark Cullen</a>
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin ‘parabolic’ rally may start in Q4, according to historical price data

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