Price Estimates Based on Price Data From Previous Bitcoin Halvings
“Bitcoin halvings” happen every 210,000 blocks mined on the Bitcoin blockchain (around four years), where the Bitcoin rewards per block is cut in half. The event results in a direct reduction in the fresh supply of Bitcoin, and has been followed with rampant increases in price, based on the past two halvings.
After the first (late-November 2012) and second (early-July 2016) halving events, the bullish sentiment on price lasted for 54 weeks and 74 weeks respectively, after which prices saw significant pullbacks (70-80%).
Using the historical price data, we tracked the weekly gains in Bitcoin’s price after the previous two halving events and scaled them (in percentage terms) to the price right after the third halving event in May 2020 for a like-for-like comparison. We also included an average mid-point of the two lines (the red dotted line). This allows us to project price estimations of Bitcoin, assuming Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory to the prior two halvings.
Based on actual price data, the current price trajectory appears to track the trajectory of the second halving event. If we took an extrapolation of the data, it could potentially mean that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 and a high point of ~$270,000, 68 weeks (about late-Aug 2021) and 74 weeks (about mid-Oct 2021) respectively after the halving event in May 2020. By end of 2021, Bitcoin’s projected price would be (optimistically) at around $163,000. It is worth noting the projected price of $18,100 by the end of 2020 has already been achieved.
If Bitcoin’s price trajectory follows that of the dotted line (the average gains of first and second halving events), it projects that Bitcoin could potentially reach $100,000 52 weeks after the halving in May 2020 (around mid-May 2021); and it suggests an all-time-high of ~$336,000 74 weeks after the halving in May 2020 (around mid-Oct 2021).
This projection also suggests that, by end of 2021, Bitcoin’s price would be at around $294,000.
We have also included the quarterly price projections respectively.
Bitcoin Price Predictions Made by Various Parties
Many analysts and key opinion leaders in the crypto space have publicly stated their predictions (and aspirations) for Bitcoin’s price, we have summarized some of them below:
Many have predicted throughout the year (some even before the DeFi summer wave!) that the price per Bitcoin could reach $20,000 by end of this year and surpass the all-time-high reached in December 2017. As Bitcoin’s price has already touched $18,000 on Nov. 18, 2020, we eagerly await to see if these bullish predictions become reality.
(Advanced Section) Price Probabilities Based on Options Trading
Chart and Data From Skew.com as of 11/18/2020
Data from options trading and prices could also potentially signal market probability of prices. In the above chart from Skew.com, probabilities (on the vertical axis) of Bitcoin surpassing different price points (on the horizontal axis) at different maturity dates (different colors) are shown. This is calculated using the price of the options, the strike price, time-to-maturity and implied volatility based on the Black-Scholes framework.
The curve shown above reflects prices of actual option traders and would be more conservative as they represent an amalgamation of sentiment of both bullish and bearish traders alike.
We compared selected option probabilities from Skew.com and compared it with the estimates from the previous section (estimates based on price data projected off the previous two halvings):
The above data shows that the option trading market may actually have not been as bullish as the overall market sentiment. This may also be supported by the funding rate at various exchanges — Cointelegraph recently reported that funding rates have so far remained neutral. The average funding rate of Bitcoin perpetual futures contracts is at around 0.01%.
This may either serve as a good “proceed with caution” sign, or mean that the Bitcoin price still have a lot of room to surge.
Do note that as price moves, traders will shift their bids and offers accordingly, and the curve will reflect different probabilities as more information becomes available to traders.