CoinMarketCap is introducing a new feature that enables users to provide the price predictions and estimates for their favorite crypto assets!
Understanding that price predictions and estimates are key information to navigate in this market to gauge the trading sentiment of various assets, the goal of this new feature is to provide convenience by aggregating the market’s estimates in a standardized format. Users are able to view the estimate averages for any asset instead of needing to ask in various asset price discussion chat groups. Much like sell-side equity research reports in traditional financial markets, users are now able to compare the asset price performance with market expectations.
Where to Find the Price Predictions & Estimates
A new Price Estimates tab is added in every asset detail page (e.g. Bitcoin) — the prediction statistics for the next six month-ends are displayed when there are more than 30 submissions for each month-end.
If there are less than 30 estimates submitted, the statistics will not be published due to the lack of sample size for us to perform data cleaning processes like filtering outliers and extreme values.
Estimates data are also summarized in the charts to show the estimated trend and the distribution of submissions.
How to Submit Estimates & Data Lock Period
Users can submit their estimates in the new Price Estimates tab after they have logged in their CoinMarketCap account. Estimates submitted can be edited anytime without limit by clicking on the Edit button before the cut off date of every month, the 21 of each month for the respective month-end.
For example, the last day for a user to change his/her prediction for the price of Bitcoin at the end of May would be on May 21. We have designed this data lock period so as to display statistics that reflect the market’s expectations rather than just being very close numbers from one day before.
Data Processing by CoinMarketCap
As the data aggregator, these are the processes we perform after users have submitted their estimates:
Eligible assets: Currently, the feature is open for all assets tracked by CoinMarketCap.
Minimum number of submissions for publishing statistics: Estimate statistics are published once more than 30 estimates are submitted, this is designed to ensure that the data sample size is large enough for us to perform other data cleaning processes.
Outliers filtering: Currently we are using the 1.5 x IQR (interquartile range) as the main method to remove outliers, we are still testing and exploring other methods such as clustering to produce more meaningful statistics and to avoid any hostile data pollution.
Extreme value filtering: We remove certain extreme values case-by-case based on the assets in question.
Historical accuracy calculation: We calculate the historical estimate accuracy by comparing the volume weighted average price of the month-end date with the estimate average to provide more transparency.
Potential Future Development
As price prediction and estimate data are popular within communities, we hope this is only the first stage of the product and we are also planning for other features to continuously improve the data offering as well as increase the user engagement opportunities if this feature is well-received by our user community. In the future, you may see predictors’ individual profiles, leaderboard, and many more interesting features!
We genuinely hope that you enjoy this new feature and it will bring you useful insights related to the market expectations and sentiment! Please bear with us while we are fine-tuning the product with initial user data and let us know if you have any feedback on the new product on Twitter or in our Telegram channel!