A large whale investor sold off $3 million in Trump shares on Polymarket, causing a stir in Trump’s odds in the presidential election betting markets.
A large whale investor sold off $3 million in Trump shares on Polymarket, causing a stir in Trump’s odds in the presidential election betting markets. The sudden liquidation was initiated by an account named 'larpas' after renowned crypto figure GCR announced taking profit, leading to Trump's odds falling 4% before settling at 58.1%.
It also drew to the heavier role played by professional, often high-stakes traders in the prediction markets, mainly the anonymous French investor, who goes by the name Théo and has reportedly bet $30 million on Trump's victory. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Théo showed a very professional trade, with the use of several accounts such as 'Fredi9999' and 'Theo4', so as not to be detected by the market while maintaining stable market prices during his accumulation phase.
Théo's monumental bet covers more than a few electoral outcomes, including Trump's victory in the Electoral College, the popular vote, and key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If the whale gets his strategy right, the potential return would be an astonishing $80 million, and if he fails, it will cost him the greater part of his liquid assets.
The French trader added that his positions are strictly for profit with no political motive. "My intent is just making money," he said, explaining that his strategy is based on his analysis of historical polling inaccuracies about Trump support since 2016, including the "shy Trump voter effect."
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