Crypto Analyst Unveils Bitcoin’s Pre-Halving Insights: Is 2023 Special?

• Benjamin Cowen uncovers similarities in BTC's pre-halving ROI in 2014, 2018, and 2020.
• Market dynamics and an inverted yield curve are fundamental in Bitcoin's pre-halving performance.
• Cowen believes 2023 has been following a typical pre-halving year pattern.

Reviewing the data, Cowen compared Bitcoin's ROI for the years leading up to its halvings in 2014, 2018, and 2020. Surprisingly, they all exhibited striking similarities, debunking the notion that this time was different. This observation comes after the speculation that Bitcoin had already bottomed out in 2022 when it hit $17,500, similar to the mistaken belief in 2018 when many thought $6,000 was the bottom. Historical patterns have shown that Bitcoin tends to exhibit a higher low or a double bottom in the pre-halving years.

However, Cowen emphasized that history does not guarantee future events, and warned investors to be cautious about assuming market movements. According to him, market dynamics are complex, and various factors could influence the trajectory of cryptocurrencies. While some claim that Bitcoin would not fade during the second half of the pre-halving year, Cowen urged a prudent approach, considering probabilities rather than certainties.

One significant factor that plays a role in pre-halving year performance is the inverted yield curve, which typically indicates market uncertainty. Historically, markets tend to climb the wall of worry during an inverted yield curve, but this could lead to economic downturns, especially during periods of high inflation. Cowen highlighted the relevance of studying previous years, like 2018, which provided a roadmap for 2020, to prepare for potential outcomes during the current cycle.