Market participants expect Bitcoin to soar higher if history repeats.
Bitcoin has rallied 80% this year. After starting this week on a promising note, the world’s largest cryptocurrency regained its foothold at $30,000, but bears were quick to take intercept and pushed the price below it recently.
While the rally may have stalled near this psychologically crucial threshold, its strong market performance so far is a stark contrast to 2022, essentially indicating a favorable regime shift is underway.
More importantly, BTC whales continued to exhibit an aggressive accumulation trend.
Accumulation Spree
The analysis said that the shift in accumulation behavior was prominent after the catastrophic fall of Terra ecosystem tokens last year. Following this event, the retail participants accelerated their “absorption” of BTC and managed to increase their relative share of the circulating supply by 1.78%.
This accumulation trend will be crucial in helping Bitcoin sustain the rally longer.
Sell in May and go away?
While a 1:1 mirroring of the current drawdown to previous drawdowns may not transpire, the resemblance to the 2018 drawdown is staggering, the analysis observed.
“While history is far from likely to repeat in a similar fashion if the fractal were to continue – BTC would peak around May 20 at $45,000.”
K33 senior analyst Vetle Lunde noted that Bitcoin’s year-to-date rise has all the signs of a “hated bullish move,” which he explained to be “a rally where holders feel underexposed after a highly traumatic year, where investors are de-risked in anticipation of further downside.” The hated rally of 2019 concluded with a “significant blow-off top” before the flagship crypto resumed trading at a 40-60% drawdown from its 2017 all-time high.