The cryptocurrency market is seeing an incredible boom, with the price of Bitcoin growing by more than 68% in the last 90 days.
Our new idea proposes that the four-year Bitcoin halving - a dramatic occurrence in which Bitcoin's inflation halves - produces not only tremendous bull runs but also a wave-like resonance in the price of Bitcoin, similar to the vibrations of a string being plucked.
This physical analogy helps us better grasp the current bull run. A plucked string has a natural frequency at which it vibrates, which is governed by its physical qualities. Nevertheless, harmonics are overtones that arise in the vibration of the string.
The first harmonic, for example, is an intermediate, weaker wave that appears near the bottom of a bear market during half of the plucking cycle.
This behavior was vividly visible throughout the 2018-2019 bear market. Bitcoin climbed more than 270% in seven months after reaching its low point in December 2018 to reach $12,100. The price then gradually fell back before the halving on May 11, 2020, which started the next bull run.
The four-year cycle can be divided into four harmonic stages. The 'balloon pop,' which lasts from the ATH (all-time high) to the cycle's low point, is the first stage. The second stage is the rising trend of the "first harmonic," and the third is the harmonic's decline, followed by the cycle's final "major rally."
We may see the first harmonic in action in the present bear market. Bitcoin fell to 15,800 on November 22, 2022, before rising 77% in less than four months to 26,000. Yet, this is only 40% of its ATH, so there is still possibility for growth.
The most intriguing question is how high can this harmonic wave rise? Last time, it reached 60% of the at-the-time ATH, yielding a forecast of $41,000 for the current harmonic. But, because we live in a different world today and are in the midst of a financial crisis, the harmonic peak may be completely different.
Can it reach 1,000,000? Hopefully not now, because the world isn't ready. The key question is not the rally's height, but rather its timing - when can we expect the harmonic peak?
The straightforward calculation is as follows. In that bad market, the 2019 harmonic high was 559 days. Given the same timing for the present weak market, the harmonic peak date is May 23, 2023. We can add more depth to the prediction by comparing our progress stage by stage now that we have passed the balloon pop and started the upswing of the first harmonic in the current cycle.
Because the bottom of the 'pop' occurred a month later than the prior time, we may expect the harmonic up to last much longer, well into June. Of course, evaluating data is always subjective, and another analyst may have a different perspective. "It's difficult to make forecasts, especially about the future," said Yogi Berra.