To start with, let us refer to what halving is and how it historically affects the price of BTC.
To put it simple, Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs roughly every four years. During this event the amount of new Bitcoin created as a reward for mining a block is cut in half. This means that miners receive 50% fewer Bitcoins for verifying transactions and creating new blocks.
The purpose of the halving is to control the supply of Bitcoin and ensure that it is not inflated too quickly. The halving also has a significant impact on the economics of Bitcoin mining, as it reduces the revenue earned by miners and can make mining less profitable for some.
You can get more information about BTC halving from our article
Bitcoin halving 2024.
The
next Bitcoin halving event which will cut the Bitcoin miner’s reward to 3.125 BTC per block, is expected to occur sometime in the first half of 2024. The exact date cannot be predicted with certainty because the timing of each halving event is determined by the number of blocks that have been mined. After the fourth halving, 96.875% of Bitcoin will be mined.
Historically, every single halving brought about a significant BTC price surge. For example, the BTC price was around $12 just before the first halving took place in 2012. However, after the halving, the asset peaked at a price of over $1,200, representing a 9,900% surge.
Similarly, Bitcoin was floating around the $650 price level before the second halving. As it turned out, the second halving brought about a massive surge that took the price to nearly $19,000.
The last BTC halving which took place in 2020, skyrocketed its price by more than 556% within a year’s time. Worth noting that the 2020 halving was characterized by heightened institutional interest, with major corporations and investment funds entering the crypto market.
That said, the main question for all crypto market participants right now is whether the fourth halving will boost the BTC price again. Let us refer to what analysts say.
The
research conducted by
Capital.com showed that the value of BTC has enjoyed a bull market lasting between 12 and 15 months after each halving event occurred. “From a historical perspective, every next halving pushes the BTC price surge a little lower, meaning that the effect of Bitcoin halving may be winding down. That doesn’t mean that the halving won’t drive the price up; however, its impact is notably decreasing every four years," said a spokesperson for Capital.com's data team.
Crypto fund’s
Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead and other executives are also
telling that the next Bitcoin halving event will spark a bull rally beginning in early 2024: “Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterward. The post-halving rallies have averaged 480 days – from the halving to the peak of that next bull cycle. If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see Bitcoin rising to $36,000 before the halving and $149,000 after.”
Most analysts suggest the price will cross the mark of over $100,000 after the next event. “It is conceivable that Bitcoin could attain a $100,000 valuation in the aftermath of the 2024 halving event, as the reduced block reward increases BTC’s scarcity and potentially drives up demand,” writes
Beincrypto.
Marshall Beard, Chief Strategy Officer at U.S. based
cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, believes Bitcoin to break this mark, too: “$100,000 price figure is an interesting number, if Bitcoin gets to its previous high of near $69,000”.
According to
Coinspeaker, the price could surge to a maximum of $74,967.47 by the end of 2024 taking the current market pattern into consideration. In contrast, factors like a prolonged bear run could knock the minimum price down to $39,453.57. That being said, the regular price of BTC could land at $57,743.23, concludes the source.
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading hands at $30,200.
“Over the long run, Bitcoin gets programmatically more scarce... The final 1,000,000 BTC [tokens] won’t all be mined until around 2140 – over 100 years away. This ever-increasing scarcity will be a large driver for the future price of Bitcoin, as market participants search for tools to preserve their wealth,” shares
Joe Burnett, a mining analyst at
Blockware Solutions.
All these predictions are a reflection of positive sentiment and leave food for thought to investors and traders over the bull run on the overall crypto market taking into consideration Bitcoin market dominance.
Source: Choise.com
Worth noting here, that there are a number of coins that not only demonstrate a high correlation with BTC over the
previous bullish cycles but significantly overtake it.
Based on Choise.com’s internal methodology and machine learning algorithm we have analyzed the market's past behavior and selected coins which are highly likely to show great upsides – X10, X12 and even X15 – alongside the next BTC halving in spring 2024. These promising coins were packed into the so-called Bitcoin Driven Portfolio, or BitDriven.
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