Why the Bitcoin miner capitulation was in 2022
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Why the Bitcoin miner capitulation was in 2022

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1yr ago

Discover how Bitcoin's dip below $20k between November 2022 and January 2023 led to an unprofitable period for miners, according to the Difficulty regression model. Miners were distributing coins in excess of the mined supply, depleting treasury reserves. But what's the current s...

Why the Bitcoin miner capitulation was in 2022

Table of Contents

Quick Take

  • Between the months of November 2022 and January, Bitcoin fell below $20k.
  • According to the Difficulty regression model (The all-in cost to mine 1 Bitcoin), it was an unprofitable time for miners.
  • Miners were distributing coins in excess of the mined supply, with Values > 100%, and depleting treasury reserves.
  • Now, the miner supply spent indicates value = 100%; in the aggregate, a volume of coins equal to the total mined supply was spent. This is supported by the miner balance which is flat year-to-date.
  • In Tuur Demeester’s latest report, CryptoSlate agrees that miner capitulation was last year, and miners are much stronger from a debt position point of view (See extract below).
Difficulty Regression Model: (Source: Glassnode)
Tuur Demeester’s: (Source: Adamant)
Miner Wallet: (Source: Glassnode)
Miner Wallet Spent: (Source: Glassnode)
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