Donald Trump

Biden

Bitcoin

Joe Biden

Donald Trump may trigger a massive Bitcoin bull run if he wins the presidential election, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5ee798a2-bd4f-488b-87b5-35730dec5275" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">according</a> to the Financial Times. Bitcoin has been extremely bullish this year already, mostly due to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. 
Since their launch in January, Bitcoin has broken two all-time highs and mostly stayed above $60,000. 
Until now. 
In the past five days, Bitcoin has tumbled below $54,000 for the first time since February. At press time, it has rebounded a little, sitting pretty at around $56,000. 
<h2 id="trump-the-bitcoin-champion">Trump, the Bitcoin champion</h2> 
The hilarious Donald Trump has shown a lot of love to the crypto industry recently. The man hostes crypto mining executives at Mar-a-Lago, started accepting contributions in crypto, and has generally been making positive statements on crypto. 
Industry leaders hope that a Trump administration, along with a strong Republican presence in Congress, will lead to clearer and more favorable environment for crypto to thrive. 
<figure id="attachment_544011" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-544011" style="width: 100%" class="wp-caption alignnone">
 <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-544011 size-full" src="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Winklevoss-twins.jpeg" alt="Donald Trump will trigger a massive Bitcoin bull run if he wins: FT" width="1920" height="1536" srcset="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Winklevoss-twins.jpeg 1920w, https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Winklevoss-twins-300x240.jpeg 300w, https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Winklevoss-twins-1200x960.jpeg 1200w, https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Winklevoss-twins-768x614.jpeg 768w, https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Winklevoss-twins-1536x1229.jpeg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px">
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 Donald Trump with Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. Credits: Tyler Winklevoss
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However, there are also concerns about what a Trump presidency might mean for traditional financial markets. Right now, the expectations are that Trump’s policies would increase the deficit, leading to higher inflation and Treasury yields. 
Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick believes Trump’s policies could lead to “fiscal dominance,” where government deficits and debt grow so large that the Federal Reserve become powerless to fight it. 
This would, of course, affect Bitcoin’s price since the crypto diva is unfortunately intertwined with key US Treasury markers. Geoff argues that a steeper curve and higher break-even rates than real yields would push Bitcoin’s price higher. 
<figure id="attachment_551575" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-551575" style="width: 100%" class="wp-caption alignnone">
 <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-551575 size-full" src="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/231104-kamala-harris-joe-biden-mjf-0927-af7dfa.jpg" alt="Donald Trump will trigger a massive Bitcoin bull run if he wins: FT" width="1500" height="1000" srcset="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/231104-kamala-harris-joe-biden-mjf-0927-af7dfa.jpg 1500w, https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/231104-kamala-harris-joe-biden-mjf-0927-af7dfa-300x200.jpg 300w, https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/231104-kamala-harris-joe-biden-mjf-0927-af7dfa-1200x800.jpg 1200w, https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/231104-kamala-harris-joe-biden-mjf-0927-af7dfa-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px">
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 President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Credits: CNBC
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Meanwhile, the Trump trade partly relies on Joe Biden being Trump’s opponent in November. Now if Biden drops out of the race and Kamala Harris takes over for him, then we might be looking at completely different odds. 
Polymarket bets on Joe dropping out have hit over $11 million, putting it at 61%. 
<figure id="attachment_551574" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-551574" style="width: 100%" class="wp-caption alignnone">
 <img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-551574 size-full" src="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot-2024-07-05-at-19.51.24.png" alt="Donald Trump will trigger a massive Bitcoin bull run if he wins: FT" width="1652" height="996" srcset="https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot-2024-07-05-at-19.51.24.png 1652w, https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot-2024-07-05-at-19.51.24-300x181.png 300w, https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot-2024-07-05-at-19.51.24-1200x723.png 1200w, https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot-2024-07-05-at-19.51.24-768x463.png 768w, https://www.cryptopolitan.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot-2024-07-05-at-19.51.24-1536x926.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1652px) 100vw, 1652px">
 <figcaption id="caption-attachment-551574" class="wp-caption-text">
 Source: Polymarket
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As for Bitcoin, its performance has been quite terrible. Sales by miners and recent movements by US and German authorities, along with Mt. Gox’s repayments have shook the market. 
Geoff thinks that by late July, if it becomes clear that Biden will run, the probability of Trump winning will obviously increase, potentially driving Bitcoin higher. 
He has predicted that BTC will break another all-time high in August and hit $100,000 by Election Day. 
Reporting by Jai Hamid

Donald Trump will trigger a massive Bitcoin bull run if he wins: FT

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