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<p>Managing the economy in times of war is an art. And Emmanuel Macron, who is preparing for any Russian eventuality, must juggle finances to strengthen military spending without scaring the French. He has stated: no question of raising taxes. But where to find the necessary billions? Between new savings products, targeted taxation, and European contributions, the State is exploring several avenues. Meanwhile, Moscow shows no signs of slowing down, and Europe wonders if it is ready to face the future.</p> 
<h2 id="h-guerre-l-economie-en-france-sous-pression-entre-epargne-et-taxation-des-riches">War: the economy in France under pressure between savings and taxation of the wealthy</h2> 
<p>France <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/france-on-the-brink-of-financial-collapse/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">is on the brink of financial bankruptcy</a>? Emmanuel Macron is not alarmed about this issue for the moment. His priorities are now on the war alongside Ukraine against Putin. Thus, to finance military expenses, his government is considering original solutions. <strong>The Livret A</strong>, already used for social housing, could host <strong>a new mission: defense</strong>.</p>
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<p>An idea that divides. “<em>I do not want my money to be used to finance the war</em>,” <a href="https://www.francetvinfo.fr/societe/armee-securite-defense/guerre-en-ukraine-produit-bancaire-livret-a-emprunt-comment-financer-les-depenses-militaires_7112403.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">declares a skeptical architect</a>. Others, like a retired Parisian, are ready to play the game: “<em>We all have to participate</em>.”</p> 
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<p>But to mobilize the French, they still need to be convinced. Philippe Crevel, an economist, reminds us that “<em>the saver looks at the return above all</em>.” So, <strong>will a special defense product come into being</strong>, with an attractive rate? Meanwhile, the Minister of the Economy, Eric Lombard, mentions <strong><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/france-eric-lombard-emmanuel-macron-economy-minister-increase-defense-spending-to-3-percent-target/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a contribution from the wealthiest</a></strong>. A heavier tax on “<em>those who have substantial savings</em>” is on the table.</p> 
<p>But how far will this taxation go? France, already plagued by <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/excessive-eu-deficit-france-struggles-to-stabilize-its-economy/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a deficit of 6.2% of GDP</a>, can it afford a capital flight?</p> 
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<p><strong>Some figures to remember</strong>:</p> 
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 <li>413 billion euros of military budget for 2024-2030;</li> 
 <li>50.5 billion euros for the year 2024 alone;</li> 
 <li>Europe could mobilize up to 150 billion in loans for defense.</li> 
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<p>With these colossal amounts, the question persists: can France rearm without sacrificing other parts of its economy?</p> 
<h2 id="h-les-depenses-militaires-un-casse-tete-budgetaire">Military spending, a budgetary puzzle</h2> 
<p>In the face of an increasingly worried Europe, <strong>Emmanuel Macron advocates for raising military spending to over 3% of GDP</strong>. Some even mention a shift to 5% if the United States decides to disengage from the security of the Old Continent.</p> 
<p>“<em>We will have to go higher</em>,” recently declared the French president.</p> 
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<p>But how to finance such ambition?</p>
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<p><strong>The idea of taxing multinationals is excluded</strong>. The government prefers to close some tax loopholes and attract private investors to a defense fund. But will banks and insurance companies follow suit? <strong>A meeting is scheduled for this month</strong> to convince them to inject capital into the arms industry.</p> 
<p>Meanwhile, Europe is trying to harmonize its efforts. Ursula von der Leyen proposes a new mechanism allowing EU countries to access <strong>massive loans for defense</strong>. But between proponents of a European strategy and those who rely on NATO, consensus is far from being reached.</p> 
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<p><strong>Germany and Poland look towards Washington</strong>, while France advocates for European military autonomy.</p> 
<p>What do we prefer: an American umbrella or a strengthened European army?</p> 
<h2 id="h-la-russie-en-embuscade-une-menace-a-ne-pas-sous-estimer">Russia in ambush: a threat not to be underestimated</h2> 
<p>Moscow is not idle. According to the latest report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, <strong>Russia now dedicates 6.7% of its GDP to defense, amounting to 145.9 billion dollars</strong>. When adjusted for purchasing power parity, this is equivalent to 461.6 billion dollars, more than the combined military spending of all European countries.</p> 
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   Estimation of military spending (as defined by NATO) as a percentage of GDP in Russia and the five highest military spending European countries – Source: <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-defense-spending-overtakes-europe-study-finds/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Politico</a>
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<p>The Russian war effort does not stop there. Its military industry is operating at full speed, reactivating old factories and mobilizing the private sector to make up for huge losses in equipment.</p> 
<p>“<em>We are not prepared for what awaits us in four or five years</em>,” warned Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General.</p> 
<p>For their part, Europeans are increasing their defense budgets, but is that enough? Estonia, Poland, and Germany are ordering tanks and fighter jets in droves. France hopes that its arms industry will benefit from this momentum, rather than see contracts go to South Korea or the United States.</p> 
<p>Is the risk of a direct confrontation between Europe and Russia real? In any case, the rhetoric is heating up. Already, the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, warns: “<em>An EU military contingent in Ukraine would mean a direct war with Russia</em>.”</p> 
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<p>And while some talk of negotiations, others already see a darker horizon.</p> 
<p>For two years, many have announced the imminent collapse of the Russian economy. Yet, it holds firm, despite increasingly heavy sanctions. But a severe blow hit last December: Ukraine cut off Russian gas, depriving Moscow of <a href="https://www.cointribune.com/en/russia-is-losing-a-pillar-of-its-economy/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">an essential economic pillar</a>. So, is Russia as robust as it claims? The future will tell us.</p>

Livret A, Hidden Taxes, Forced Loans… Has Macron Already Chosen Who Will Pay The Military Bill?

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