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After hitting a four-year low, XRP (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/xrp-price-index">XRP</a>)&nbsp;appears on the brink of a comeback against the Bitcoin (<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price">BTC</a>) trading pair. Fueling this optimistic turnaround is the emergence of a classic bullish pattern, namely the triple bottom formation.
<h2 id="xrp-eyes-a-30-rebound-versus-bitcoin">XRP eyes a 30% rebound versus Bitcoin</h2>
A triple bottom pattern develops when the price forms three distinct lows, all reaching a similar price level, thus indicating strong support. 
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/8d452c71-8fe8-48d8-a947-fa2714780144.png" alt="Bitcoin risks 30% loss against XRP if ‘triple bottom’ confirms" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Triple bottom trend reversal illustrated.
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</figure>
After the third low, the price breaks above the neckline resistance level formed between the lows and, as a rule of technical analysis, rises by as much as the maximum distance between the pattern’s lowest point and the neckline.
As of July 12, the XRP/BTC pair was testing its neckline support of around 793 satoshis (1 satoshi = 0.00000001 BTC) for a potential breakout.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/e29434ff-893c-4fd4-9367-88801e1f6fee.png" alt="Bitcoin risks 30% loss against XRP if ‘triple bottom’ confirms" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 XRP/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Additionally, the pair’s weekly <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal">relative strength index (RSI)</a> reading of around 36 indicates that XRP is undervalued versus Bitcoin, further boosting its recovery potential in the coming weeks. That said, a decisive close above 793 satoshis will likely push XRP/BTC toward its triple bottom target of around 1,055 satoshis.
Conversely, a pullback from the neckline resistance, akin to similar retreats in recent history, risks pushing XRP/BTC toward its local bottom of 664 satoshis — down by over 15% from the current prices — by August.
<h2 id="bitcoin-s-20-drawdown-benefiting-xrp-price">Bitcoin’s 20% drawdown benefiting XRP price</h2>
XRP’s renewed strength versus Bitcoin primarily comes in the wake of the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/german-government-bitcoin-sales-3200-btc-transferred">German government’s relentless selling</a> of its BTC holdings in July. For context, the wallets associated with the government have witnessed 46,200 BTC in outflows since mid-June, amounting to around $2.69 billion worth of potential sell-pressure.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/cb5fb695-3edd-4da9-9fda-e53d6969591d.png" alt="Bitcoin risks 30% loss against XRP if ‘triple bottom’ confirms" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 German government's Bitcoin wallet balance. Source: Arkham Intelligence
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Furthermore, the <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-repayment-crypto-market-volatility">ongoing reimbursement of over 140,000 BTC</a> to Mt. Gox creditors has reduced traders’ appetite for Bitcoin, with the XRP/BTC pair up over 20% in July.
Related:&nbsp;<a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/buying-the-dip-bitcoin-institutional-investors-add-100k-btc-week">Buying the dip? Bitcoin institutional investors add 100K BTC in a week</a>
Bitcoin dominance overall slipped to 54.55% on July 12&nbsp;from highs of 55.46% a week ago, suggesting that traders could be rotating into altcoins while the BTC price consolidation period plays out.&nbsp;
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/835507be-61dc-45bd-91e2-28d34cbbec0e.png" alt="Bitcoin risks 30% loss against XRP if ‘triple bottom’ confirms" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 Bitcoin Dominance Index daily performance chart. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
Looking broadly, XRP is relatively underbought versus most of the top-ranking crypto assets so far in 2024, with its year-to-date returns sitting around -26.50%. 
The weekly RSI for XRP/BTC is rebounding after hitting its lowest level in two years at around 33, just three points above the oversold threshold.&nbsp;Historically, when XRP’s weekly RSI last reached 33, it was followed by an impressive 194% rally, suggesting a potential for significant upward movement this time as well.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/ea775dff-8d14-4c72-8f30-0346f2dcdae4.png" alt="Bitcoin risks 30% loss against XRP if ‘triple bottom’ confirms" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
In comparison, BTC’s weekly relative strength is in a correction mode, having declined from a very overbought level of 88 in March to a neutral level of 45.50 as of July 12.
<figure data-ct-non-breakable="true">
 <img src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-07/2e0cd002-d94d-4d76-8eb5-cb02ce677e1d.png" alt="Bitcoin risks 30% loss against XRP if ‘triple bottom’ confirms" title="">
 <figcaption style="text-align: center;">
 BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
 </figcaption>
</figure>
This decline indicates that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has significantly weakened in the past two months, which may benefit “underbought” big-cap altcoins like XRP in the coming weeks. XRP may reap additional benefits from the growing buzz around its <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/ripple-ceo-xrp-etf-inevitable-consensus-2024"></a><a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/ripple-ceo-xrp-etf-inevitable-consensus-2024">“inevitable”&nbsp;exchange-traded fund launch</a>.&nbsp;
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin risks 30% loss against XRP if ‘triple bottom’ confirms

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Cointelegraph

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