The theme of this week is “Silence.” After about two months’ prosperity from October, the crypto market steps into inactivity.
The theme of this week is “Silence.” After about two months’ prosperity from October, the crypto market steps into inactivity. It seems like investors have finally calmed down to some extent and breaking news hasn’t seemed to bump up volumes this week. What is also worth mentioning is that Singapore is currently conducting lots of actions to accelerate the layout of its blockchain ecosystem, especially in the field of financial services. No one questions Singapore's vital position in the global financial ecosystem, therefore, the market is still slowly growing beneath the surface. Let’s look forward to the performance of the crypto market next year.
Trading Volume Shrinks, But the Future Is Still Expectable
Unlike the hot stock market, the crypto market is quiet in December this year. Compared with last week, the trading volumes of main cryptos shrank more than a quarter in both the spot market and contracts market, taking it back to the same levels seen in October. Although Bitcoin’s price dropped from $19,500 to lower than $18,000 during this period, there is no significant increment of trading from the probable panic.
Market Sentiment Implied in Three Indicators
Some analysts believe that this silent atmosphere very likely happens near the end of each year. Lots of investors and traders clear their inventory for vacation and are waiting to re-enter the market after Christmas and the new year. Perhaps this is true, but not always the case.
We can find some clues from the crypto options and futures market. The funding rate is a useful indicator and is able to reflect the change of confidence in the market. From the perspective of BTC, the perpetual contracts’ funding rate turned negative, which means that more traders are holding short positions, and they don’t have that much confidence in the short-term market.
Similarly, ETH contract volatility of funding rates has decreased and been concentrated near the 0% line, which means that the scales of investors with long positions and short positions are roughly the same, and all of them are still holding their assets to see the trends of the market.
Another clue is open interest. Unlike trading volumes, open interests in futures and contracts are still maintained at a high level. Compared to the booming of November, there is no trend about volatility at the present. This illustrates that investors are not trading frequently or clearing their inventories for Christmas. They are just watching the fluctuation and waiting for a good chance.
Furthermore, implied volatility also hides some information.
Generally speaking, implied volatility reflects unequivocal future anticipations of market performance, and investors will sell options with higher volatility and buy options with lower volatility, so analysts are able to know what traders are thinking about by this indicator.
From the perspective of the recent volatility surface, we can find that investors tend to sell options. According to the concept mentioned above, we speculate that investors lack confidence for the short term of the market.
However, investors are still keeping enough confidence in the long-term future. On one hand, the forward volatility surface illustrates that investors are tending to buy options, which implies positive predictions from the aggregated market. On the other hand, from the perspective of the term structure of implied volatility, the market is in a state of contango, indicating that the possible peak of trading will come next year.
The present value of BTC & ETH market caps can also be regarded as a proof of confidence. They are still increasing, step by step.
Therefore, please give some patience to our crypto market. The future will be better.
Singapore: Blockchain and More
Singapore is not having the same peaceful week as the crypto markets.
- The Singapore government approved an investment of $9,000,000 into blockchain research and development on Monday.
- Government-backed DBS Bank’s digital exchange will begin providing crypto trading services for institutional clients and accredited investors next week.
- Swiss digital exchange will also build a crypto exchange in Singapore with Japan’s SBI Holdings, slated for launch in 2022.
- On Thursday, Singapore published the Singapore Blockchain Ecosystem Report 2020, finding that blockchain is the breakthrough of financial services for Singapore. Singapore has applied blockchain to central bank digital currency (CBDC) research, business networks, AML/CFT, the first digital bond issuance, and other areas.
Compared with Hong Kong and Tokyo, Singapore's advantages in IT technology have enabled it to succeed in the blockchain industry. In addition, according to anonymous sources, Singapore has already begun to take steps in compliance with crypto assets. It is believed that compliance related to digital asset transactions will be implemented in Singapore as soon as possible.
However, unlike Hong Kong and Tokyo, Singapore can only rely on itself. Let us wait and see.
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