Huobi's co-founder believes that halving cycles still have a significant impact on Bitcoin's performance.
Bitcoin's next bull run may not happen until late 2024 or early 2025, Huobi's co-founder has claimed.
Speaking to CNBC,
Du Jun warned that BTC's halving cycle continues to have a significant impact on the digital asset's performance.
Other crypto analysts had previously argued that halving events were beginning to have less of an effect on Bitcoin's value — principally because most of the 21 million BTC that will ever exist is now in circulation.
But speculation that bull runs were lengthening was shot down in flames after the world's biggest cryptocurrency tumbled from $69,000 to $33,000 in under three months — and its performance continues to be dragged down by a number of factors. Du added:
"If this circle continues, we are now at the early stage of a bear market. It is really hard to predict exactly because there are so many other factors which can affect the market as well — such as geopolitical issues including war, or recent COVID, also affect the market."
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More than 90% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist is now in circulation thanks to a cutting-edge concept known as halvings.
This meant that a 50 BTC block reward was being issued every 10 minutes when the blockchain first launched in 2009. This was slashed to 25 BTC in November 2012, 12.5 BTC in July 2016, and 6.25 BTC in May 2020. The next halving — which isn't expected to take place until 2024 — would further reduce the reward that miners receive to 3.125 BTC.
Each halving has reliably led to an explosion in Bitcoin's value — generally 12 to 18 months after it has taken place. However, BTC began to rise sharply much sooner after 2020's event… and it ended up reaching a new all-time high within six months.
The flipside to these parabolic bull runs is that they are traditionally followed by nasty crypto winters — and in 2018, Bitcoin's price fell by 80% in 12 months… erasing the dizzying gains that had helped the digital asset hit $20,000 in 2017.
Analysts are now concerned that the industry will face a prolonged crypto winter, and bearish sentiment may drag BTC below $29,000 — a price threshold that has successfully held since the start of 2021.
If 2018's downturn was to be repeated, an 80% fall from November's all-time high would see Bitcoin shrink to $13,800.
A number of crypto enthusiasts argue that things have changed substantially since 2018, with the market maturing thanks to the arrival of institutional investors such as Tesla and MicroStrategy. Of course, BTC's famed volatility remains.