The data highlights how sustained usage beyond initial sign-up remains challenging throughout the digital asset sector.
Prediction Market News
Prediction market platform Polymarket demonstrates stronger user retention than most decentralized finance protocols, wallets, and exchanges, according to data compiled by analytics company Dune and market maker Keyrock. The analysis tracked monthly cohorts of new users and measured how many returned to trade in subsequent months.
Polymarket's average retention outperformed more than 85% of the 275 crypto projects sampled across networks, DeFi platforms, wallets, and trading applications. The data highlights how sustained usage beyond initial sign-up remains challenging throughout the digital asset sector.
Prediction markets create engagement tied to real-world events including elections, sports competitions, and macroeconomic releases. This event-driven cycle generates recurring reasons for users to return, fostering higher-frequency participation than short-term speculation without requiring incentive programs to maintain trading activity.
The retention advantage may explain why major crypto platforms increasingly experiment with prediction market integrations. Platforms struggling to maintain consistent engagement outside high volatility periods appear to be searching for features that encourage habitual use rather than one-time transactions.
Crypto exchange Coinbase will launch tokenized equities and prediction markets, according to Friday's Bloomberg report. Tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong shared alleged leaks of the exchange's prediction markets website ahead of the announcement.
Bitnomial Clearinghouse received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Saturday, enabling it to launch prediction markets and offer clearing services for other platforms. Crypto exchange Gemini launched an in-house prediction market across all 50 U.S. states on Tuesday.
The timing reflects broader interest in features that sustain user activity beyond crypto's typical boom-bust cycles. Markets where liquidity depends on frequent participation face structural challenges when weak retention signals shallow growth rather than expanding user bases.
Wallet service Phantom and multiple exchanges are now exploring prediction market capabilities as the sector searches for engagement models that reduce reliance on volatility-driven speculation. The trend indicates platforms recognize sustained usage as critical for long-term viability in increasingly competitive blockchain environments.
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